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Archives by Year:
Yield Differentials And Policy Divergence
Image Source: Pixabay Market odds for an earlier Fed rate cut have inched back up after Friday’s US unemployment rate rose. This had also followed some dovish testimony from the Fed Chair earlier on in the previous week. Monday’s calendar is rather quiet for the remainder of the day, with no first tier risk on the […]
Japan Avoids A Technical Recession, But GDP Disappoints
Japan’s fourth quarter GDP was revised up to avoid a technical recession, and yet it still missed market expectations. We believe sluggish private consumption should remain a concern for the BoJ in order to change its policy direction. We therefore see a higher chance of a policy change in April than in March.BingStrong exports and non-residential investment led the […]
FX Daily: Data Versus Powell, Round Two
Image Source: Unsplash The dovish-perceived testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week shifted all attention to US data. The first input, US jobs data, raised more concerns about data quality than answering questions on the labor market. We expect a 0.3% MoM core CPI this week, which remains inconsistent with a cut before June and can offer the dollar some […]
Dare To Be Different
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky BingI took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it […]
Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: Bitcoin – Monday, March 11
Image Source: Pexels Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 11 March 2024.Bitcoin/U.S. Dollar(BTCUSD)BTCUSD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFunction: Follow TrendMode: MotiveStructure: ImpulsePosition: Wave IIIDirection Next higher Degrees: wave (III)Wave Cancel invalid level: 31046.25Details: The five-wave increase in wave (III) may be complete Watch out for CorrectiveBitcoin/U.S. Dollar(BTCUSD)Trading Strategy:Bitcoin’s rise continues higher From the rise of the third […]
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 11 And 18
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Prior Forecast Observation Week of March 11 March 12 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – February 90.6 89.9 Consumer Price Index – February 0.4% 0.4 CPI Core 0.3 0.4 […]
Market Briefing For Monday, March 11, 2024
Stocks are wobbling from an extended S&P; not just from ‘State of the Onion’ Address, which basically showed ‘proof of life’ if you wish to view what seems to have been a caffeinated President adhering to his Party’s talking points. In a sense that aspect was disappointing; as there should be more bipartisan or National interests expressed, […]
Homebuilders Hosed
Both on a fund level………..by way of XHB:And with individual securities, like KHB………..Maybe “hosed” is overstating it, but let’s just agree that it looks way more like a “sell” at these levels than a “buy.”More By This Author:Is 70,000 Performative?Peak Everything, Not Just StocksPatchouli-Scented Shoes
Goldilocks “Just Right” Porridge
The US labour market seems to be in a comfortable zone—not too hot and not too cold. Reminiscent of Goldilocks’s “just right” porridge.February’s addition of 275,000 jobs is noteworthy but unlikely to spur any immediate shifts in the Federal Reserve’s 3-cut thinking. Although the headline was much higher than anticipated, the increase in permanent job […]
