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Archives by Year:
How High Could The Stock Market Go Without This Invisible Hand?
Image Source: Unsplash Invisible Hand Holding Up Stock Market for Now You might be wondering why the stock market continues to march higher when everything is against it. Interest rates are high, the economy is peaking, there’s pessimism among investors, earnings aren’t very strong, the global economy is suffering, inflation remains sticky, and so on.You see, […]
U.S. Fed Holds Policy Steady And Sticks With Three-Cut View For 2024
The Federal Reserve left the Fed funds target rate range unchanged and continues to indicate three 25bp rate cuts are the most likely path ahead for 2024. This is modestly dovish, but with growth and inflation projections revised stronger, the Fed believes that the risk is that interest rates will be higher than previously thought over […]
PIMCO: The Fed Needs More Unemployment
Image Source: Pexels Analysts at PIMCO say that for the Fed to reach its goal of lowering inflation to 2%, we need fewer people to be employed. Reduced incentives to offer raises and bonuses and less spending from the “resilient” American consumer can help cool down inflationary pressure. But there’s an elephant in the room: Why do we […]
Fed Remains On Hold, But ‘Dots’ Reveal Hawkish Bias
Image source: Wikipedia Tl;dr: No change for rates, barely any change in the statement, upgraded economic growth, but big ‘signals’ from the Dot-Plot with 2024 remaining the same (3 rate-cuts) but 2025, 2026, and beyond all seeing higher rates (less cuts).2024 Median dot: unchanged at 3 cuts, but composition changed… 2 officials saw no cuts (unch) 2 […]
Russell 2000 Earnings Dashboard 23Q4 – Wednesday, March 20
Image Source: Pexels Russell 2000 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 23Q4 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is -19.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is -14.5%. Of the 1,689 companies in the Russell 2000 that have reported earnings to date for 23Q4, 54.6% reported above analyst expectations. The 23Q4 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is -1.4%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for […]
Gold Under Careful Observation
The technical situation of gold didn’t change after yesterday’s session. Will the 4-hour chart give us any clues about the next move? Technical Picture of Gold Looking at the daily chart, we see that gold moved lower yesterday and tested the 2023 peak once again. Despite this downswing, bulls stopped their opponents and triggered a […]
US Drop To Number 23 In The World Happiness Report
Please consider the World Happiness Report for 2024.Key Happiness Details Overall Rankings: The top 10 countries have remained much the same since before COVID. Finland is still top, with Denmark now very close, and all five Nordic countries in the top 10. But in the next 10, there is more change, with the transition countries of Eastern […]
The Fed Stand Pat, Is “Highly Attentive To Inflation Risk”
Federal Reserve Press Release (Emphasis Mine) Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent […]
Grains Report – Wednesday, March 20
WHEAT General Comments: Wheat was higher again yesterday on reports of higher prices for Russian Wheat. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets […]
What Options Markets Expect For Today’s FOMC Meeting
This afternoon we have the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting since, well, the last one six weeks ago. Expectations for a rate cut are essentially nil, even if the probability of a June cut has crept back up to about 70%. Today’s activity will be driven primarily by traders’ interpretation of Chair Powell’s demeanor, and the newest […]
