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Archives by Year:
Millennials Rush To Buy $2,300 Gold Bars At Costco
Gold Bars in the Shopping CartThe Wall Street Journal comments on Gold Bars in the Costco Shopping Cart. Costco, which started offering gold bars last year online and in a few stores, has been selling out within hours. Consumers rated gold as a better investment than stocks and mutual funds in 2023 for the first time […]
The CRE Bust Is A Slow-Moving Train
Image Source: Pexels Day-to-day we don’t hear much about the commercial office property crash. As The Fed’s Michael Barr said at an event hosted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington, “This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” […]
Yellen Continues Betting On Interest Rate Declines
Image Source: Unsplash In February, the data showed that Yellen was making a big bet that long-term rates would not stay elevated for long. This was demonstrated by the volume of short-term debt issuance. The Treasury was willing to pay higher rates to keep the maturity of the debt shorter.This continues to be the case. Over the last […]
Amazon’s Final Push?
Image Source: Unsplash Amazon (AMZN) has been steadily and resolutely pushing toward its lifetime high. Amazingly, this high was set way back in 2021, a full 34 months ago, in spite of all the company’s growth since then. This lumbering, multi-trillion-dollar retailer is still sporting a P/E of 62, so it’s not exactly a bar-goon. More By This Author:From Red-Hot To Humdrum […]
A Few Quick Thoughts About Payrolls And Recent Volatility
Another month, another upside surprise in Nonfarm Payrolls. Another day, and another bout of volatility. Can we expect both to continue?Here was my early reaction to this morning’s employment report: It was clear from yesterday’s abrupt decline that traders suddenly became nervous about the prospect of holding long positions ahead of a Payrolls report. The […]
Canadian Dollar Pares Losses As The NFP Dust Settles
Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has regained some ground during Friday’s US trading session. The loonie tumbled on a combination of a stellar US employment report and weak Canadian labor figures to regain lost ground as the impact of the data eased. US Nonfarm payrolls increased well beyond expectations in March, triggering a bullish reaction on US Treasury […]
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
Image Source: Unsplash S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 24Q1 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 5.0%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 7.9%. Of the 20 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q1, 90.0% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 24Q1 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 3.0%. If the […]
Who Turned The Lights Out?
As I flew to Phoenix I watched as early morning strength in the markets on Thursday turn into an afternoon rout for risk assets. It turned out to be an ugly day for the bulls as you can see below. People blamed “rising tensions in the Middle East”. I don’t think so. The markets were […]
Gold-Stock Upside Targets
The gold miners’ stocks are building steam, enjoying mounting upside momentum with gold powering to nominal record highs. Speculators and investors alike are taking notice of this high-potential sector that has long been overlooked. Despite their recent surge, gold stocks remain very undervalued relative to the metal that drives their profits. Their technicals and fundamentals […]
March Employment Indicators For Nonfarm Payroll
Image source: Pixabay The employment surprise in context. Figure 1: NFP (bold blue), Bloomberg consensus of 4/4 (light blue x), household series adjusted to NFP concept (green), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (pink), aggregate weekly hours index of private production & nonsupervisory workers (tan), all in logs, 2011M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.More […]
