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Archives by Year:
Recession Probabilities For June 2025
Image Source: PixabayProbabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model.Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through June 2024, and assuming no recession has arrived as of July 2024.Figure 1: Probit estimated recession probabilities for 12 months ahead, using 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month rate (blue), 10yr-3mo spread, 3 mo […]
Inflation “Cooled” In June, So Why Is Consumer Confidence Still Tanking?
Image Source: PixabayThe recent CPI report showed that inflation is, according to official data, cooling down — so why are consumers more worried for the future than they’ve been in months? If prices are coming down, shouldn’t that fuel higher confidence and a greater collective sense of economic well-being? One simple answer is that the official data is cooked, […]
Gold Revving To Lifetime Highs
Image Source: PixabayGold, as most of you know, is one of the few assets whose ascent I consistently cheer. I’m very pleased to see GLD approaching levels never seen before.The longer-term /GC chart looks exceptional. No, gold isn’t cheap, but I could absolutely see this doubling.A different view of this, gold divided by the US dollar […]
Markets Take US Politics In Stride
Image Source: UnsplashDespite the weekend’s eyebrow-raising events, the broader markets took it in stride, displaying all the volatility of a sloth on a Sunday nap. Stock market mavens, unwaveringly fixated on the allure of rate cuts and corporate earnings, maintained their cool. The S&P 500 breezed past 5,630, while Apple Inc. (AAPL) ascended to new heights, […]
Let’s Not Forget The Most Relevant Market Basics
With the aftermath of the horror of the weekend, the market responded with presuppositions of a Trump victory.However, we believe that these presuppositions might be a bit premature.November is still far away.January 2025 is even further away.And the market, although tends to run 6 months in advance, behaved as if it knows that: Trump will […]
Crude Oil Churns On Monday As Bull Run Fizzles Out, WTI Tests Below $81.00
Image Source: Unsplash WTI tested back underneath $81.00 as Crude Oil markets wobble. Forecasts of Chinese Crude Oil demand have flipped from hopeful to fearful. OPEC+ production cuts set to begin ending at the end of September. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil tested into the south end of the $81.00 handle on Monday as Crude […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Daily Update
Image Source: Unsplash Very difficult markets on Monday in attempting to update an EW count. I have left the “alternate” counts in place as presented over the weekend in the Podcast. The ES, however, did move up to an additional new high which on that basis alone would move the alternate over to Preferred, which I […]
Russell 2000 Kicks On Again With A Bright Start To Week
I didn’t expect the Russell 2000 (IWM) to have it in itself after a strong finish to last week, but today is a positive start to this week as the index looks to shape a right-hand-side base. Technicals are net positive with what could turn out to be a relative outperformance against the S&P. The […]
What Underlies The Pessimism Regarding The Outlook In Canada
Image Source: Pexels It is little wonder that the Liberal government’s fortune languishes with each new political poll. All that is needed to understand this decline is an appreciation of the changing attitudes regarding the short-term outlook for the economy. Quarterly, the Bank of Canada publishes surveys probing how businesses and consumer attitudes shift over time to […]
How To Trade For Dystopian Days
Image Source: Unsplash This weekend’s assassination attempt on the former president, and distinctly downbeat vibes throughout the economy, make it worthwhile to consider… a gigantic bummer. Possibly.If you were contemplating a dystopian United States – a dystopian world, really – what would you invest in? Maybe one of the few online bastions of free speech? RUM […]
