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Archives by Year:
Treasuries See Recession-Style Employment Trends, Stocks Should Too
The US unemployment rate in June ticked up to 4.1% (from 4% in May, red line below since 2021, and 70 basis points above the 3.4% cycle low in 2022). Full-time job creation fell to a 39-month low and part-time job creation reached a 33-month high while April and May job estimates were revised lower. […]
Jobs Much Weaker Than Expected, The Unemployment Rate Ticks Up
Data from the BLS, chart by MishBefore diving into all of the details from the June Jobs Report let’s highlight the ongoing peculiarities, underway for over two years. Jobs vs EmploymentFrom September 2020 through early 2022, nonfarm payroll job gains and full time employment changes tracked together.Starting around March of 2022, a divergence between employment and jobs […]
Summer Feeling Hotter Than Usual? Gold Could Be Too.
Image Source: Pixabay Certain climate scientists, research economists, and precious metal investors agree: This year could be one of the hottest on record.Climate change has long been a popular theme among left-wing media outlets, and this transitional El Nino-La Nina season has provided plenty of fuel for the fire. 2024 stands a fighting chance of seeing the […]
Gold Price Forecast For July 2024
Image Source: Pixabay “What is chaos for the fly, is normal for the spider.” Remember the analogy to 2011? I haven’t discussed it in several days, but that doesn’t make it any less meaningful or profound. It’s one of the more important factors contributing to my current prediction for gold prices in July 2024.The implication I’ve […]
BYD Expands To Thailand, Cuts Prices, In Midst Of Ongoing EV War
Image Source: Pexels EV competition is going from fierce to cutthroat. BYD, the leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, is set to inaugurate its first factory in Southeast Asia on Thursday, according to a new report from Nikkei.The $486 million facility, located in Thailand’s Rayong province, will be accompanied by significant price cuts for local buyers.The expansion comes at a […]
AI Progress Drive Meta Shares Up As Firm Outpaces Tech Rivals
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META) is making significant strides in artificial intelligence development and implementation across its services, outpacing some of its major competitors like Google’s parent company Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). The company’s recent stock performance reflects investor confidence in its AI-driven strategy, with shares up over 3% in morning […]
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2
Image Source: Pexels S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 24Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 10.1%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 10.0%. Of the 19 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q2, 84.2% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 24Q2 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 4.1%. If the energy sector […]
Analyzing XRP’s Path To $35: What Investors Should Know
Image by WorldSpectrum from Pixabay Amid the broader market correction, Ripple’s native cryptocurrency XRP has also corrected by 10%, slipping to $0.40 as of press time. As reported by Crypto News Flash, XRP’s weekly losses have extended to nearly 15%.However, the current correction hasn’t stopped investors from making bullish price predictions for the altcoin. Referencing historical data, several crypto analysts […]
Employment Situation And Business Cycle Indicators
NFP at +206K vs +191K.Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: […]
Gold’s Doldrums Strength
Image Source: Pixabay Gold has shown impressive strength weathering 2024’s summer doldrums. Now through the worst of its weakest seasonals of the year, gold didn’t suffer any prolonged selling. That was despite entering June very overbought, really boosting odds for a sizable selloff. And gold’s usual core constituencies weren’t buying, so unusually significant demand came from […]
