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Archives by Year:
Oxford Economics: Recession At 3 & 6 Months Horizons
Image Source: PexelsIf you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around…Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.I’m not sure about the exact ensemble of models used, but apparently they use “multivariate probit models with sentiment-based, macroeconomic, and financial indicators to provide a more robust […]
Stagflation Lurks Ahead Of This Week’s Data Release
Image Source: PexelsThe market is convinced the Fed is satisfied with its inflation effort and is preparing to cut interest rates. We’ll gauge the reality of those expectations this week with a heat check on PPI and CPI data.The “$64,000 Dollar Question” is: How is the market positioned?If today’s action is any indication, it’s positioned for […]
GBP/USD Flattens As Markets Await Key Midweek Data
Photo by Colin Watts on Unsplash GBP/USD pulled into the middle on Monday as markets quiet back down. Near-term volatility spikes have given way to easy waters. Key UK and US inflation data lie ahead in the middle of the week. GBP/USD continued to flatten out on Monday, trading in place and testing key technical levels as markets […]
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Clings To Gains Below 97.00 As Downtrend Remains
Image Source: Unsplash AUD/JPY forms a ‘shooting star’ pattern, signaling potential for further downside if 96.15 is breached. Key support levels include 96.00 and 95.00, with deeper losses targeting the Tenkan-Sen at 94.43. If buyers reclaim 97.85, resistance lies at 98.00, with further gains challenging 98.74. The AUD/JPY advances during the day yet retreats after hitting […]
Total Outstanding Mortgage Debt Increased 18.9 Percent In Three Years
Here’s the hyper-financialization of mortgages in pictures. In just three years mortgage debt has soared despite plunging home sales. Image from Fed DFA Report: Distributional Financial Accounts, square inserts by Mish Hyper-Financialization of Mortgages Key Points In 2000 Q1 total mortgage debt was $4.50 trillion. The top 1 percent had only $0.20 trillion. The top 10 […]
Canadian Dollar Softens On Tepid Monday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggled to find direction on Monday, easing against most of its major currency peers and middling against the Greenback on the charts. The CAD is holding steady at the top end of a swing high against the USD, but markets are huddling in the midrange as investors await the latest batch […]
Positive Divergence For Gold And A Pullback For SPY
We are up over 20% this year so far; SPX up around 12%. Above is the daily SPY. We noted in shaded blue where the TRIN closes reached near 1.20 and higher. TRIN closes near 1.20 and higher show there is panic in the market and panic only forms near lows. We noted open […]
Stocks Stall As Gold And Oil ‘Tinderbox Hedges’ Dominate Trading
DepositPhotosOn Wall Street, the mood was a cocktail of anticipation and anxiety. Stocks closed mixed as traders tried to shake off last week’s vertigo from the risk asset rollercoaster that spun right back to square one. This week dishes out a feast of economic indicators, from CPI to Retail Sales, each capable of stirring the […]
2 Tech Stocks And AI Bets To Buy At Bargains Amid The Market Selloff
Wall Street bulls held their ground at the Nasdaq’s 200-day moving average twice this week. Buyers stepped in near the key long-term level, which is also near the tech-heavy index’s 2021 peak, based on signs that big tech has already gotten the summer haircut it needed.Some investors fear a larger selloff is around the corner. […]
Gold Price Surges As US Yields Drop, Geopolitical Tensions Escalate
Gold price rallied over 1% on Monday during the mid-North American session as US Treasury bond yields retreated ahead of a busy economic calendar in the United States. Traders are bracing for the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, which is expected to show an improvement in the disinflation process. The XAU/USD trades […]
