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Archives by Year:
Drill Baby Drill: Commodity Performance In U.S. Election Years
Following one of the more politically volatile months of this election year, commodity performance has delivered mixed results. The S&P GSCI Gold rallied 4.3%, while the S&P GSCI Crude Oil fell by the same amount. However, both gold and oil remained firmly up on the year, registering gains of 17.3% and 16.5%, respectively. Overall, they pared year-to-date gains back […]
The Yen Carry Trade Exploded… And Contagion Is Spreading To The U.S.
Image Source: Pexels Sunday night’s headlines were unsettling as an onlooker – you could watch the carnage erupt in big Asian markets like Korea and especially Japan, where the Nikkei just had its roughest session ever.So I knew even then it would only be a matter of hours before the carnage jumped back over the International […]
Is The European Union Headed For Another Debt Crisis?
Image Source: Pixabay Europe has had trouble balancing its relatively large number of spending commitments with lackluster economic growth. The European economy remained basically stagnant in 2023, compared to 2.5% growth in the United States. Economic subsidies, a large welfare state, and a new push to increase defense spending means that all but four EU members are left with budget […]
Market Talk – Monday, Aug. 5
Image Source: Unsplash ASIA:The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:• NIKKEI 225 decreased 4,451.28 points or -12.40% to 31,458.42• Shanghai decreased 44.64 points or -1.54% to 2,860.70• Hang Seng decreased 247.15 points or -1.46% to 16,698.36• ASX 200 decreased 293.60 points or -3.70% to 7,649.60• KOSPI decreased 234.64 points or -8.77% to 2,441.55• […]
Is The Correction In The Market Over?
For those of you who do not know much about me, I wrote a book called Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth.The main thrust of the book was about market phases, of which we use 6.In the book, I use weekly charts assuming that a longer timeframe rather than a Daily one […]
Fed Funds Path As Of Noon ET
From CME:Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold black), from futures as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), and of 8/5 noon ET (light blue), in %. Source: Fed, CME, author’s calculations. Note the ten-year Treasury yield also fell at open:Note: Central Time.Addendum:Fed funds path relative to CBO June projection: Figure 2: Fed funds (black), CBO projection (blue), […]
‘Fear Gauge’ Soars As Selloff Continues
Investors quickly lost hope of a market rebound following Friday’s freefall, as the global selloff sparked by recession fears continued into Monday. All three major benchmarks notched their worst daily percentage drops since 2022 — the Dow cratering 1,033 points for its third consecutive daily loss, the Nasdaq sinking further into correction territory with a 576-point drop, […]
Economic Indicators Are Flashing Mixed Signals Amid Recession Speculation
As I write this, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen below 3.8% as global markets tumble on growing recession fears. Investors rushed into the perceived safety of government debt after Friday’s weak jobs report and slowdown in global manufacturing activity.Manufacturers in the U.S. have taken their foot off the accelerator and are applying […]
Bubble Starting To Bust, Or Is It Time To Double Down On These AI Stocks?
Image courtesy of 123rf.com As the market reacts to recession signals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) briefly broke above 60 on Monday, climbing 163% over a 5-day period. Otherwise known as the “fear index,” based on S&P 500 weighted 30-day call and put options, VIX reflected the level of anxiety last seen in March 2020 following the lockdown-related […]
Defense Outperforms
Losses are accelerating as the S&P 500 (SPY) has, as of this writing, fallen 8% since the July 16th high. That move has occurred on a rotation out of former market leaders like the mega caps as markets contend with a number of factors ranging from recession fears to rising geopolitical tensions abroad. While breadth […]
