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Archives by Year:
Divided We Stood, United We Fall
If there is one thing we have learned through the years, it is that when the Family trades in the same direction, that is when conditions are best. depositphotos Considering the bifurcation of the sectors and (featured last week) that the Long Bonds TLT were already flashing risk off, this week’s unified selling comes as no surprise. The […]
Postcards: The Week Ahead And The Trap Behind Me
Dear Fellow Expat:Greetings from the Senator Theater in Baltimore.The last two times I’ve been to this theater … both films featured my brother in them. The first is the John Waters film “A Dirty Shame,” and the second is Lance’s film “Lie Q,” which is based loosely on me.With my daughter and wife in Florida, […]
Returns In Focus – Value Creation Shines In The Lower Middle Market
It’s the end of an era and the beginning of a new. When evaluating performance within PE, roughly two-thirds of the total return for buyout deals that were entered in 2010 or later and exited in 2021 or before can be attributed to market multiple expansion and leverage.[1] depositphotos Today, with higher financing costs, falling multiples, and […]
The Economy Shows Signs Of Slowing And Hits Stocks Hard. But It May Not Be Time To Sell Your Stocks (Yet)
Welcome back readers. Hope that you had a good “summer” week and that the sudden shift from positive to negative in the markets did not catch you off guard. We will explore… depositphotos On all accounts, it has been a good 2024 in the market so far. Yes, by all measures, the markets have been narrowly traded, […]
Gold Makes A FATH – Stocks Take A Bath
depositphotos We’ll explain Gold’s “FATH” in the next paragraph. But by now, we ought well be getting used to this. Futures contacts — far and away the most liquid non-physical form of Gold trading purely by price — regularly “roll” from one expiry month to another, (but not consecutively), the current leap per this past Wednesday being from August […]
Yield Curve Inversions Starting To Uninvert
Market Correction Continues depositphotos As noted last week, the continuation of the market correction is unsurprising. “However, while the markets are oversold enough for a reflexive bounce, the current correction process is likely incomplete. Moreover, the MACD “sell signal” also suggests that the current upside remains limited. It is quite likely that any short-term, reflexive rally will […]
Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices “Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story”
Marylanders and residents in surrounding states should brace for rising power bills due to capacity constraints on the regional power grid and the increasing peak load from new AI data centers (read: here). depositphotos This combination creates a perfect storm of continued utility bill inflation, which will only pressure cash-strapped households in the years ahead. On Friday, Goldman published a note […]
Big Changes In Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations This Year And Next
depositphotos I captured rate cut expectations before and after the Friday jobs reports. Let’s take a look. Data from CME Fedwatch, chart by Mish The current rate is 5.25%-5.50% effectively 5.37%. Rate Expectation Percentage Point Change Sep 2024: -0.13 PP to 4.94% (-0.43 PP from current) 1.7 quarter-point cuts Nov 2024: -0.30 PP to 4.53% (-0.83 PP from current) […]
The Hunger Games: The Fed Version
I am just a poor boyThough my story’s seldom told I have squandered my resistance For a pocket full of mumbles Such are promises All lies and jests Still, a man hears what he wants to hear And disregards the rest…-Paul Simon, The Boxer, 1969 depositphotos Let the wise hear and increase in learning, And the one […]
Reading The Future With Futures: Latest CoT Report
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2024.10-year note: Currently net short 728.5k, up 86.5k.July’s jobs report was weaker than expected, with a gain of 114,000 non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3 percent. This totally turned the interest-rate outlook on its head. For the week, the 10-year treasury yield […]
