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Archives by Year:
Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Wipe Out 30% Of Jobs Growth In The Past 16 Months
Every month I write about the Jobs Report. But while it is timely, it is only an estimate. There is an actual census of over 95% of all employers that also gets reported, called the QCEW, and it is the “gold standard” of actual jobs growth (or loss). Its two drawbacks are that it is […]
NIFTY 50 Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Image Source: Unsplash NIFTY 50 (INDIA) Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart NIFTY 50 (INDIA) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Navy blue wave 3 POSITION: Gray wave 5 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Navy blue wave 3 (initiated) DETAILS: The completion of navy blue wave 2 of 5 has been observed, and now navy blue wave 3 is actively unfolding. […]
5 Bullish ETF Ways To Play Gold Strength
Image Source: Pixabay Gold has been enjoying a huge rally amid rate-cut bets in September and large purchases by central banks. The yellow metal hit a new all-time high of $2,521.00 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and safe-haven demand, with many analysts expecting more upside in the months ahead.As a result, investors who are […]
“Way Too Much Is Priced Into This Market”
Image Source: Pexels We’re currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy.Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations.That’s good, right?But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait — those sound pretty concerning…So, […]
Recession Before The Election?
Image source: Pixabay I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say?Miller (2019) showed the maximum AUROC probit model for predicting recessions at the 3 month over the 1954-2018 period uses the 10yr-Fed funds spread. Updating his regressions, […]
AgMaster Report – Wednesday, Aug. 21
NOV BEANS LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES! It always happens! And now we’re witnessing this phenomenon one more time! The bearish 8-12-24 USDA REPORT pegged Bean yield at 53.2 BPA & production at 4.589 BB – both records! However, accompanying the large crop are 4-yr low prices – which establish US Beans as the cheapest […]
BLS Revises Jobs Down By 818,000 The Most Ever, About 68,000 Per Month
Major Downward Revisions to US Jobs Pushes the Fed to ActING reports Downward Revisions to US Jobs Pushes the Fed to Act The Bureau for Labor Statistics has acknowledged that its non-farm payrolls estimates were above the levels shown by tax records to the tune of 818,000. So rather than adding 2.9mn jobs in the 12M […]
Deficit Concerns: Currency Fluctuations And Yen’s Volatility
Image Source: Unsplash Deficit Concerns: Japanese Shares Decline Throughout a backdrop of unstable currency systems and economic indicators, Japan’s financial system sector experienced some major ups and downs on Wednesday. The revelation of the Ministry of Finance about the July trade deficit, which is a significant amount of 621.8 billion yen ($4.28 billion), was strongly contrasted […]
Grains Report – Wednesday, Aug. 21
WHEAT General Comments: Wheat was a little higher in all three markets on stable overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the […]
Mixed Story: What The Revision To The Jobs Data Means
Image Source: Pixabay I don’t have time to do an exhaustive analysis of the implication of the downward revisions to the jobs numbers today, but I will make a few quick points.First, the people complaining that this downward revision exposes cooked jobs data in prior months need to get their heads screwed on straight. Let’s just […]
