Archives by Month:
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- November 2012
- October 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- April 2009
- February 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- August 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
Archives by Year:
USD/CAD Drifts Lower Below 1.3550 As Investors Await BoC’s Macklem Speech
Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash USD/CAD weakens around 1.3530 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Several Fed officials open the door to further large interest-rate cuts by the end of this year. Investors will closely watch the speeches from Fed’s Bowman and BoC’s Tiff Macklem on Tuesday. The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.3530 during the early […]
In-Sample And Out-Of-Sample Recession Probabilities
Image Source: PixabayNo apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions have indicated? It matters which variables you use, and whether you include the 2020 recession.Figure 1: Year ahead probit regression estimated probabilities, using 10yr-3mo term spread and short rate (bold dark […]
EUR/USD Eases Back After Misfire In EU PMI Figures
Image Source: Pixabay EUR/USD declined in one of its worst days in H2 2024. EU PMI figures broadly came in below expectations, while US PMIs also printed lower. Tuesday is set to be a quiet day on the Fiber front. EUR/USD trimmed recent bullish momentum, declining by one-half of one percent on Monday. Fiber declined in […]
Polymarket explores token launch amid $50 million fundraising talks
Key Takeaways Polymarket is negotiating over $50 million in funding linked to a potential token launch. The platform has attracted nearly $1 billion in bets on the US presidential election. Share this article Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise over $50 million in new funding, which is likely tied to a potential token launch, […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – In The Service Of Power, Lies, And Murder
Image Source: UnsplashStocks just wobbled around today.Gold and the Dollar gained a little.Silver was smacked down lower for now to the 31 level. Because they can.They are bulking up the Comex gold inventories in Hong Kong. This sometimes presages a raid on prices.There will be an option expiration on the Comex for gold and silver this week on […]
Rates Spark: The 2Y10Y Bund Disinversion Is Structural
Image Source: PexelsWith macro risks tilted to the downside there is room for pricing a scenario requiring a faster central bank response. Whether that justifies low long-end yield levels is a different question. We see more curve steepening pressure from both ends. French spreads widened again, but it was no widespread risk-off this time. The early cutting cycle […]
New Highs Later This Year
We are up over 28% this year so far; SPX up around 20%. The bottom window is the SPY/VIX ratio. A bearish sign is triggered when the SPY makes a higher high and the SPY/VIX ratio makes a lower high; noted on chart. We shaded in light pink the times when the SPY was up […]
“Why Aren’t Home Prices Falling?”
Image Source: Unsplash From time to time, I like to point out errors that we make because we think in nominal space, or because we had 25 years of inflation being so low that we didn’t have to think about it very much. I do think that at some level, we should consider pointing the finger […]
Fed Cut A Mistake?
Image Source: Pixabay Bond market reaction raises question if Fed cut was a mistake.Video Length: 00:10:12More By This Author:Weekly Recap And DARP Update – Friday, Sep.20The Fed Cuts RatesIs The Dollar Strong Or Weak?
Four Stocks To Watch This Week – Monday, Sep. 23
WiseTraders Weekly Watchlist: September 23, 2024 – September 27, 2024 You never quite know how the market will respond to news, which is why we focus on Big Money activity and we typically remain agnostic to news. We’d already forecast a volatile but bullish week ahead, and on Thursday the market obliged following the Fed’s 0.5% […]
