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Archives by Year:
Important Triangle Failure
Over the course of the past week, the /ES has wiggled and wobbled without any clear direction, sometimes violently ripping up or down with little apparent cause. Simply stated, it’s a mess, at least on a minute bar basis. Yet if we look at a daily bar, particularly in candlestick mode, something very important jumps out at me: the market had a […]
Fall 2024 Snapshot Of The S&P 500’s Market Cap
Image Source: Pexels The market capitalization of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) increased by 7.8% during the third quarter of 2024. According to Standard and Poor, the index ended 2024-Q3 with a market cap of $50.57 trillion.Since the end of the second quarter of 2024, the value of the Top 10 stocks within the market cap-weighted index dropped […]
HBO documentary to uncover Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto next week
Key Takeaways HBO documentary set to reveal Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity on October 8. The identity reveal could influence the US presidential election. Share this article A new HBO documentary set to air next week claims to have uncovered the true identity of Bitcoin’s elusive creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, according to Politico. Titled Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, […]
Creative Cacophony
The ETF industry has hit a major milestone, reaching USD $10 trillion in assets under management in the U.S. Commentary on the rise of index-based or passive investing may be widespread, but it is harder to find estimates of how truly “passive” their holders are. Secondary market volumes offer a fascinating, important and complementary perspective.Our new paper “The […]
Momentum, Large-Cap Growth Factors Still Leading This Year
Betting against momentum and large-cap growth continues to be a losing proposition, at least in relative terms, for positioning US equity portfolios in 2024, based on a set of factor ETFs. These risk premia have dominated for much of the year and it’s not obvious that the trend is set to change, based on trading […]
The World’s Most Valuable Unicorns In 2024
The combined value of the world’s unicorns is $3.8 trillion — surpassing the GDP of India.In this graphic, we show the most valuable unicorn companies in the world as of October 2024, according to Carbon Finance, CB Insights, and Bloomberg. What is a Unicorn Company? A unicorn refers to a privately-held startup valued at over $1 billion. The term […]
The ISM Services Index, Measuring 75% Of The Economy
Recently I have paid much more attention to the ISM services index. That’s because, since the turn of the Millennium, manufacturing’s share of the economy has contracted to the point where even a significant decline in that index has not translated into an economy-wide recession, as for example in 2015-16. When we use an economically weighted average […]
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):Not sure what this means, but ADP is outstripping the official series, which is itself above the preliminary benchmark. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (light blue), ADP-Stanford (green), QCEW (red), change from 2023M01, in 000’s, s.a. QCEW seasonally adjusted using X-13 in […]
Crude Oil Price Jumps Over 4% As Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Oil prices surged on Thursday as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked fears of potential supply disruptions in the region. The conflict between Israel and Iran, along with ongoing clashes involving Hezbollah, has raised concerns among investors about the stability of oil production and transportation in one of the world’s most […]
Russell 2000 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2 – Thursday, Oct. 3
Image Source: Unsplash Russell 2000 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 24Q3 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 42.6%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 67.1%. Of the 14 companies in the Russell 2000 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q3, 50.0% reported above analyst expectations. The 24Q3 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 1.5%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for […]
