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Archives by Year:
Worker Caution On U.S. Jobs Market Suggests Momentum Is Shifting
Consumer confidence rebounded in October, but job vacancies surprisingly fell at a time when worker sentiment surrounding the jobs market is already weakening. If workers are increasingly concerned about job security this may run the risk that they start changing their spending behaviour, justifying ongoing gradual interest rate cuts from the Fed.Image Source: Pexels Data surprises […]
The Homebuilders Are Fully Valued
Two homebuilders – Pulte (PHM) and DR Horton (DHI) – have sold off on earnings in the last week and my analysis of their reports suggests the sector is fully valued.Let’s start with the bigger one – DHI. With a market cap over $50 billion, DHI is the largest publicly traded homebuilder – closely followed […]
Consumer Confidence Surprises On The Upside
108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today: Figure 1: UMich Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Consumer Sentiment adjusted per Cummings-Tedeschi (red, left scale), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (black, right scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue square, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: […]
Options Market Expectations For Alphabet And AMD Earnings
Yesterday we highlighted the busy week ahead, chock full of crucial earnings and economic reports.The parade begins after today’s close when Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) release their Q3 earnings.Both companies are considered key players in artificial intelligence, even though they have been overshadowed by larger peers. GOOGL got off to a slower […]
Visualizing S&P 500 Performance By Presidential Year
This graphic visualizes the average annual percentage change of the S&P 500, by year in the presidential cycle using data sourced from PinPoint Macro Analytics.It highlights how the third year of a president’s term has historically been the best year for the U.S. stock market. Data and Key Takeaway The data we used to create this […]
Repeat Home Sales Accelerate Slightly Monthly, But Continue To Show YoY Deceleration
This morning’s repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case Shiller continued to show deceleration in this metric which is very important to home buyers. Specifically, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through August, U.S. house prices according to both indexes rose 0.3%. This is a slight acceleration from the 0.1% increases […]
Biotech Momentum Trades For The Q4 Rally
depositphotos Positioning BIOTECH Stocks for a Q4 Rally Biotech stocks are in a “choppy” volatile mode as we await clarity from earnings this week through early November. But many SMID stocks have done very well. The biotech sector (XBI) made an interim peak in late February followed by an active summer in very choppy trading. There […]
Three New Trade Deficit Charts Will Have Trump Howling
Goods balance of trade plus advance data from Census Department, chart by Mish Advance Trade Data The international trade deficit was $108.2 billion in September, up $14.0 billion from $94.2 billion in August. Exports of goods for September were $174.2 billion, $3.6 billion less than August exports. Imports of goods for September were $282.4 billion, $10.4 billion […]
DJT Stock Continues To Soar As 5 Trading Halts Rock Tuesday Morning
Image courtesy of 123rf.com In recent weeks, Trump Media & Technology Group’s (Nasdaq: DJT) stock, trading under the ticker DJT, has captured significant attention due to its volatile trading patterns and substantial price fluctuations. The stock’s movements have been closely linked to political developments and investor sentiment, as it surged dramatically amid a pre-election rally. Despite financial […]
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q3 – Tuesday, Oct. 29
Image Source: Pixabay S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 24Q3 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 4.9%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 7.5%. Of the 209 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q3, 78.9% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66.9%. The 24Q3 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 4.5%. If the energy sector is […]
