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Archives by Year:
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: What Is The Path Of The Least Resistance?
Image Source: Pixabay Crude oil prices reported a slight rebound amid its short-term tightness in the physical market. A bearish outlook persists amid a soft demand outlook for China and the world. A stronger US dollar, boosted by a Trump win, is further exerting pressure on crude oil price. Crude oil price parred some of its […]
Has AGNC Investment Corp.’s Dividend Gotten Any Safer?
Image Source: PexelsIt’s been nearly a year since I looked at AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) in Safety Net, which surprised me because it used to be one of the most-requested stocks for this column.Perhaps the fact that the stock has gone nowhere for over a year has dampened investors’ enthusiasm. But that big, juicy 15% yield still attracts […]
OpenAI, Google, & Anthropic Face Hurdles In Advancing AI Models, Casting Doubt On Near-Term AGI
Photo by Steve Johnson on UnsplashTech companies focused on chatbot development, like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, have faced significant near-term headwinds in advancing large language models. Despite tens of billions of dollars in investments, these tech firms are experiencing diminishing returns in advancing more sophisticated LLMs.Sources told Bloomberg that OpenAI’s new Orion LLM has experienced performance limitations. This means the new LLM would outperform the firm’s existing models, but […]
Microstrategy Puts
Image Source: PixabayAs crazy as crypto has been, there was no way I wanted to short it. Nope. Not even me.It was curious, however, what it would be like to buy MSTR puts. Again, there’s no way I’d do that in real life, but the massive spread between Microstrategy’s market cap and its actual $BTC holdings […]
The Importance Of Diminishing Returns
Image Source: PexelsIn graduate school, I recall a professor suggesting that the rational expectations revolution would eventually lead to much better models of the macroeconomy. I was skeptical, and in my view, that didn’t happen. This is not because there is anything wrong with the rational expectations approach to macro, which I strongly support. Rather I […]
Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update – Wednesday, Nov 13
Image Source: UnsplashThe markets are seemingly beginning to have trouble picking up the rallies again. Which does keep the wave 4’s in play and a bit more confusing. Nonetheless, I am not making any major changes to the labeling. I continue to review the alternate counts with an additional being discussed today. That being that the […]
Could Trump Be Deflationary?
The baseline assumption from markets in the aftermath of the Trump victory is that the economy will be modestly more inflationary than otherwise expected. But what if the market has this one exactly wrong? What if Trump could be more deflationary than not? That’s the conclusion I am now considering, as I mentioned to Oliver […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – The Allure Of Illusions
Image Source: UnsplashMonetary canards never die. They just get spun with a twist and come back again in different forms.The trillion-dollar platinum coin is morphing into a ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ to pay off the US debt.Well, at least we know we are nearer to the end of this phase of the great transfer of wealth – […]
The MACD: A Guide To This Powerful Momentum Gauge The Math Behind The Indicator Convergence and Divergence Crossovers, Trends, and Location Matter The Current Market Longer-Term MACD Analysis MACD And Price Divergences Summary
Image Source: Pexels When we discuss technical analysis in our articles and podcasts, we often examine the moving average convergence divergence indicator, better known as the MACD, or colloquially the Mac D.The MACD is one of our favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. Accordingly, let’s learn more about the MACD to see how it detects […]
U.S. Stocks’ Exposure Jumps To A Decade-High Level: ETFs To Tap
Image Source: Pixabay According to a Bank of America survey, investor exposure to U.S. stocks jumped to the highest level since 2013 after the presidential election, on optimism about stronger economic growth. The survey showed that fund managers expect U.S. stocks to be the best-performing asset class next year, followed by global equities. Investors who responded […]
