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Archives by Year:
Yes, The Labor Market Is Still Not Tight
One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation. This can be confusing because there’s often an assumption that more jobs mean more demand and higher prices. But it’s more complex than that. Think of it like stock prices. Prices will rise […]
It’s A New Macro, The Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (Yet)
Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast […]
Have Markets Been Fooled?
Image Source: Unsplash In this episode of Macro-To-Micro Power Hour from 04/04/24, Samantha LaDuc and Craig Shapiro discuss the dynamics of the financial markets, touching on subjects like the VIX’s movement, geopolitical tensions, and the implications of economic data releases like payroll numbers and CPI. They delve into how these factors influence market positioning and volatility […]
This Is Not A Silver Rally, That Is Yet To Come
Image Source: Pixabay With gold at new highs and silver finally starting to catch up, it sure looks like we’ve been in an impressive rally for the precious metals. But looks can be deceiving. What this actually is, is a commodities rally across the board, and a signal that price inflation is picking up again as […]
Millennials Rush To Buy $2,300 Gold Bars At Costco
Gold Bars in the Shopping CartThe Wall Street Journal comments on Gold Bars in the Costco Shopping Cart. Costco, which started offering gold bars last year online and in a few stores, has been selling out within hours. Consumers rated gold as a better investment than stocks and mutual funds in 2023 for the first time […]
The CRE Bust Is A Slow-Moving Train
Image Source: Pexels Day-to-day we don’t hear much about the commercial office property crash. As The Fed’s Michael Barr said at an event hosted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington, “This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” […]
Yellen Continues Betting On Interest Rate Declines
Image Source: Unsplash In February, the data showed that Yellen was making a big bet that long-term rates would not stay elevated for long. This was demonstrated by the volume of short-term debt issuance. The Treasury was willing to pay higher rates to keep the maturity of the debt shorter.This continues to be the case. Over the last […]
Amazon’s Final Push?
Image Source: Unsplash Amazon (AMZN) has been steadily and resolutely pushing toward its lifetime high. Amazingly, this high was set way back in 2021, a full 34 months ago, in spite of all the company’s growth since then. This lumbering, multi-trillion-dollar retailer is still sporting a P/E of 62, so it’s not exactly a bar-goon. More By This Author:From Red-Hot To Humdrum […]
A Few Quick Thoughts About Payrolls And Recent Volatility
Another month, another upside surprise in Nonfarm Payrolls. Another day, and another bout of volatility. Can we expect both to continue?Here was my early reaction to this morning’s employment report: It was clear from yesterday’s abrupt decline that traders suddenly became nervous about the prospect of holding long positions ahead of a Payrolls report. The […]
Canadian Dollar Pares Losses As The NFP Dust Settles
Photo by Michelle Spollen on Unsplash The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has regained some ground during Friday’s US trading session. The loonie tumbled on a combination of a stellar US employment report and weak Canadian labor figures to regain lost ground as the impact of the data eased. US Nonfarm payrolls increased well beyond expectations in March, triggering a bullish reaction on US Treasury […]
