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Archives by Year:
Manufacturing ISM Inches Positive After 16 Months Of Contraction
ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM®Please consider the March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in March, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered […]
Imagine If We Could Annualize This Quarter…
Image Source: Unsplash Many years ago, a very intelligent and experienced colleague made a classic mistake about annualization. We made a tweak to our trading model in the hope that this minor change would yield marginally better daily trading results. And on the first day, it worked even better than we’d hoped. I don’t remember the […]
Fed To Offer Every Household $1 Million From Its New Discount Window
Image Source: Pexels The Federal Reserve announced a new program today that offers every American household a $1 million loan from its new Household Discount Window at 2% interest. Before you start planning how to spend the $1 million, there’s one catch: the $1 million can only be used to buy US Treasury bonds, notes and bills. […]
Understanding Commodities In Today’s Economy Economic Significance of Commodities Commodities and Inflation: A Historical Perspective Spot vs. Futures Price: The Essence of Spot and Futures Prices The Role of Speculators and Hedgers Exchange-Traded Commodities (ETCs) Market Dynamics Accessing Markets through ETFs ETF Structures Navigating Contango and Backwardation in Commodity Markets
Image Source: Unsplash Commodities, the backbone of the global economy, have long been overshadowed by the dazzling performance of equities and fixed-income markets. The 2010s, in particular, saw commodities facing significant challenges, largely due to various macroeconomic headwinds. However, the landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years. With equities and bonds reaching new highs amidst stretched […]
BofA Boosts Micron’s PT To $144 Amid AI-Driven HBM Demand Surge
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Micron Technology’s (Nasdaq: MU) stock surged today after Bank of America Securities raised the company’s price target from $120 to $144, maintaining a Buy rating. The increase is attributed to Micron’s anticipated growth driven by the surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. BofA Raises Micron Technology’s Price Target to $144 Based […]
Gross Domestic Income Shows America Is In Stagnation
Image source: Pixabay In a recent CNN poll, 48% of respondents stated that they believe the economy remains in a downturn, and only 35% said that things in the country today are going well. The disparity between somber economic sentiment and a surprisingly strong headline unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be easily explained.The […]
Monthly Data Starts Out With Slightly Positive News In Manufacturing, Slightly Negative In Construction
As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. To repeat what I have said often recently, these are the two sectors I am paying particular attention to for forecasting purposes this year.The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference […]
New Week, Month And Quarter Begin – Back To Narrowness
As expected, Thursday was a very quiet day in the markets ahead of the long holiday weekend as well as closing out March and Q1. The government released its monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report which is a favorite of the Fed and it showed inflation came in as expected, up 0.3% for the month […]
Dow Down Triple Digits On Hawkish Fed Comments
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are trading below breakeven this afternoon, with the blue-chip index now sporting a triple-digit deficit. This price action came after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for February met expectations, prompting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to note that there […]
The Return Of U.S. Manufacturing Growth Lifts Optimism
The ISM manufacturing index surprised everyone by moving into growth territory for the first time since late 2022 with production jumping, new orders rising and inflation pressures increasing. Markets interpreted that as reducing the chances of meaningful Fed rate cuts, but construction was much weaker and there are a lot of jobs numbers still to […]
