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Archives by Year:
Economic Feast Or Famine Ahead? Opinions Vary
Image source: Pixabay Opinions wildly vary following the Presidential election as to whether we are facing an economic feast or famine. There is the notion the stock market will continue to melt up with Trump riding to rescue America’s economy. He is doing this with his new best friend Elon. This of course discounts the idea […]
‘Tis No Surprise, Gold’s Current Demise
For you valued regular readers of The Gold Update, price’s demise across these past three weeks ought be no surprise. Into Halloween week, Gold vis-à-vis its near-term smooth valuation line ran better than +150 points “too high”. Then into the StateSide election, price — as herein penned a week ago — once trumped was then dumped.Subsequently, Gold […]
Bitcoin Projected To Hit $1.5 Million By 2030, Says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood
Image Source: Unsplash Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager and crypto ETF issuer ARK Invest, has long maintained her bullish outlook on Bitcoin, and her recent comments reinforce her optimistic projections for the largest cryptocurrency. Following Donald Trump’s electoral victory over Vice President Kamala Harris last week and Bitcoin’s recent surge to an all-time high of $93,250, […]
Structural Breaks In The Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in regressions augmented with short rate, from 1946-2023Q3 (GDP growth 1947-2024Q3).Figure 1: Regression coefficient of GDP growth lead 4 quarters on 10yr-3mo spread for subsamples. + (***) indicates significance at 11% (1%) msl, using Newey-West standard errors. Source: Author’s […]
Stocks Pull Back After Initial Election Euphoria. Big Rotation In Sectors And Assets Classes.
Welcome back readers. Glad to have you. A quick shout out to Geoff who did an excellent job filling in last week as I was travelling. Speaking of traveling, during my travels, I heard from one of our readers who is a savvy financial guy who said to me, “I don’t follow people like you […]
John Malone M&A Cleanup Costs Minority Investors Context News Breakingviews
If you sup’ with the devil, you should have a long spoon. Investors in Liberty Broadband have re-learned the old adage, after it struck a roughly $13 billion sale to cable company Charter Communications on Wednesday. Both are outposts of the empire of John Malone, the “cable cowboy” famed for byzantine dealmaking. The agreement squeezes investors out of […]
Warren Buffett Reduces Tech Stakes; 4 Stocks Make 64% Of Berkshire Portfolio
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE: BRK-A) investment portfolio underwent significant changes in the third quarter of 2024, with Warren Buffett’s conglomerate reducing its exposure to major tech and banking stocks while reinforcing its position in traditional consumer businesses. The company’s latest 13F filing reveals a $13.6 billion decrease in total portfolio value to $266.38 billion, marking […]
Post-Election Market Results And Commentary
POST-ELECTION MARKET RESULTS Given the excitement and heady projections which dominated analysis of various investments leading up to the election, it is worth reviewing what the past two weeks have brought. Below are charts for stocks, bonds, and gold. After each chart is a short commentary… STOCKS (S&P 500 Index SPX)Stocks rallied to new all-time highs […]
Hurry Up And Wait
Action to Take: Powell’s “no hurry” stance on rate cuts reshapes our near-term outlook. As December cut odds drop to 62%, markets transition from momentum to fundamentals. Consider 20% trailing stops on speculative positions that surged post-election while giving quality names more room to breathe. Watch domestic small-caps and sectors most insulated from higher-for-longer rates […]
Bond Vigilantes Fire Warning Shots
— “Higher for Longer” last October sent the yield on the 10-year US Tsy. note up to 5% … an odd reaction.— The 1/2% cut in the Fed funds rate this September sent the 10-year rate plummeting to 3.6% … also an odd reaction.— Yesterday, November 15, 2024, the note closed yielding 4.445%, 56 basis points from […]
