You can always count on the media to explain after the fact why something happened. The explanations for Friday’s sell-off were wide ranging, from oil to the Fed, to economic data, etc. For us, the reasons were of a technical nature and the clues were there well before the sell-off started. First, price had advanced well above the weekly upside target and on Friday it simply retreated back within the projected trading range. Second, just ahead of the FED decision we alerted readers of our blog that buying pressure in the SPX had reached peak levels. And, although it is possible for price to keep grinding higher while some of that pressure is being relieved, this possibility is normally associated with the early stages of very strong bull markets.
Last week we started tracking the count-down to our year-end targets. For reader’s convenience, we are making it possible to follow the action live and in real time here. Previous declines have taught us that a retest of the October lows is a possibility. To make sure the SPX remains on target, we need to keep an eye on resistance at 2822, and support at 2745 and 2700:
Current signals: Daily Sell, Weekly Buy, Monthly Sell
Daily Buy pivot for Monday at 2790.
The projected trading range for next week for SPX is 2740-2840.
Oil has been a lot in the news lately, and remains on track to reach our downside target next week.
Current signals: Daily Sell, Weekly Sell.
Daily Buy pivot for Monday at 62
The projected trading range for oil for next week is 58 – 63.5:
Gold couldn’t hold onto the gains from last week, switched to a sell signal mid-week, and reached our downside target on Wednesday. It also dropped below 1220, which we consider a key bullish reversal level.
Current signals: Daily Sell, Weekly Sell
Daily Buy pivot for Monday at 1220.
The projected trading range for Gold for next week is 1200 – 1240:
All G6 targets were reached, and the target hit rate this year remains above 85%.
