Classic ‘rebound & breakdown’ behavior characterizes the past week. A breakdown (begun immediately after the post-Election one-day relief rally) from that level would be ‘technically a classic’ pattern progression. Monday’s wallop was heavy as projected; and I suspect that (barring news); any intraweek rebound is going to be sold into.
It is very hard to get a ‘meaningful’ capitulation with so many stuck (just as I feared they would be) in high-cost-basis FANG and momentum stocks. The bearish argument would be they have to be purged before a real low can be a prospect. However it’s more than that; there is genuine economic angst.
Sure, folks can attribute it all to Apple (not correct, as ‘other’ FANG stocks in fact preceded Apple with breakdown); although I have forewarned that too much money was concentrated in Apple (managers not balancing in what is considered a responsible diversified way, which means taking ‘some’ off of the strongest as they became an overweight portion of portfolios).
None of the stories about Apple deviated from what I’ve discussed before; generally that dismissal ‘by’ Apple of the relative importance of ‘unit sales’; masking what analysts ‘think’ they need to know. I agree that the ecosystem and ‘annuity revenue streams’ basically, is important. But in my view you do not significantly increase the ‘Services’ growth if your ‘installed base’ also is not growing. To wit: new customers for the products not expanding rapidly; as well as difficulties with marketing in China that they’d rather not address.
Additionally, other FANG stocks (and similar) have been cratering for awhile and here I could single out Amazon, Google, Netflix and Nvidia; as I have. Please recall my warning that something like 90% of price and volume were in that handful of stocks; with Microsoft lucky they didn’t make the group in a sense. There are other reasons for people ‘after the fact’ preserving capital.
