Overnight Markets And News
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.35%) this morning are up +0.38% on optimism the U.S.-China trade conflict will soon be resolved after a report said that China has outlined a series of potential trade concessions to the U.S. Two people familiar with the report said the Chinese offer was constructive ahead of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. A 1% gain in Walmart in pre-market trading is also giving stock indexes a boost after Walmart reported Q3 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel rose +3.4%, better than consensus of +2.9%. European stocks are down -0.10% and GBP/USD tumbled -1.23% to a 2-week low on increased UK political risks as several British cabinet ministers quit in protest of Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. This throws doubt into Prime Minister May’s ability to secure Parliament support for her plan, and even for her to survive as a leader as the UK could crash out of the EU with no deal in place. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.20%, Hong Kong +1.75%, China +1.36%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia +0.06%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea +0.99%, India +0.34%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-week high on reduced trade concerns after a report indicated China had outlined a series of trade concessions to the Trump administration. Losses in Japanese exporters led the Nikkei Stock Index lower after USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.34%) is up +0.34%%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD unch) is up +0.02%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY -0.13%) is down -0.14% at a 1-week low.
Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 +0-040) are up +3.5 ticks at a 2-week high on dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell along with carry-over support from a rally in UK Gilts on increased safe-haven demand from Brexit woes.
Fed Chair Powell said Wednesday night that “we have to be thinking about how much further to raise rates, and the pace at which we will raise rates.”
Eurozone Oct new car registrations fell for a second month as they declined -7.3% y/y to 1.084 mln, although year-to-date new car registrations are up +1.6% y/y to 12.828 million.
China Oct new home prices rose +1.02% m/m with prices rising in 65 out of 70 cities versus 64 cities that prices rose in Sep.
UK Oct retail sales ex auto fuel unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m. weaker than expectations of +0.2%.
UK Oct retail sales including auto fuel fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
U.S. Stock Preview
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -1,000 to 213,000, previous -1,000 to 214,000) and continuing claims (expected +2,000 to 1.625 million, previous -8,000 to 1.623 million), (2) Nov Empire manufacturing index (expected -1.1 to 20.0, Oct +2.1 to 21.1, (3) Philadelphia Fed Nov business outlook index (expected -2.2 to 20.0, Oct -0.7 to 22.20, (4) Oct retail sales (expected +0.5% and +0.5% ex autos, Sep +0.1% and -0.1% ex autos), (5) Oct import price index (expected +0.1% m/m and +3.3% y/y, Sep +0.5% m/m and +3.5% y/y), (6) Oct export price index (expected +0.1% m/m, Sep unch m/m and +2.7% y/y), (7) Oct industrial production (expected +0.2% m/m, Sep +0.3% m/m), (8) Sep business inventories (expected +0.3%, Aug +0.5%), (9) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report, (10) Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles appears before the Senate Banking Committee on banking supervision, (11) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) speaks at a GIC Central Banking conference in Madrid, Spain, and (12) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A with the Minnesota AgriGrowth Council.
