Year-over-year import prices and export prices grew more than expected.
Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation
Month-over-month price index for fuel imports increased (and non-fuel imports were little changed) – and the price index for agricultural commodities declined.
Import Oil prices were up 3.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 0.3 %.
There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.
Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.
Year-over-Year Change – Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)
There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession – early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with the strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.
According to the press release:
