Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of November 19
November 19
NAHB Index
68
68
68
November 20
Housing Starts – October
1.225M
1.201
1.240
Building Permits
1.260
1241
1.260
November 21
Durable Goods Sales – October
-2.5%
0.7
-2.4
Initial Unemployment Claims
215K
216
213
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – November (r)
98.3
98.3
98.3
Existing Home Sales – October
5.250K
5.150
5.200
Leading Indicators
0.1%
0.5
0.1
November 22
Thanksgiving
November 23
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
55.9
55.7
55.5
PMI Services Flash Index
54.5
54.8
54.5
Week of November 26
November 26
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – October
0.23
0.17
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
28.3
29.4
November 27
S&P Case/Shiller Index – September
Twenty City M/M
0.1%
0.0
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.3
0.1
Twenty City Y/Y
5.3
5.5
FHFA Housing Price Index – Sept
0.3%
0.3
Consumer Confidence – November
139.0
137.9
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
20
15
November 28
GDP – Q3 (r)
3.6%
3.5
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
1.7
1.7
International Trade in Goods – October
-$74.2
-76.0
Wholesale Inventories – October (p)
0.3%
0.4
New Home Sales – October
585K
553
November 29
Personal Income – October
0.4%
0.2
Personal Spending
0.4
0.4
Pending Home Sale Index – October
104.6
104.6
November 30
Chicago PMI
59.4
58.4
