Market AnalysisAfter declining US corn & soybean monthly yields since Aug for the 2nd year in a row, the trade is expecting stability to a slight increase in 2023’s November Thursday report. This year’s erratic US growing season began when Central US dryness advanced into late June before moderate US July rainfall occurred. However, heat & dryness returned in late summer into Oct keeping WCB crops under stress while the eastern Midwest had moderate conditions before harvest. S America’s planting season has also experienced extremes. Dryness has sliced Argentina’s wheat prospects & delayed their seedings. Brazil’s Parana & RGDS have had flooding rains delaying their spring plantings. Mato Grasso & northern Brazil’s dryness stopped soybean planting until heavy rains arrived this past weekend. This year’s N & S American weather, the Black Sea & the Israel- Hamas conflict have combined for a crazy backdrop for world’s prices.This year’s US heat & dryness has advanced soybean’s harvest to 91%, 5% higher than the 5-yr average. The trade is experiencing no change in the US 49.6 bu yield and output of 4.103 billion bu Given this fall’s dryness, we are concerned about harvest seed moisture dipping into 10-11% range. This could drop the US yield by 0.3 bu to 49.3 bu & also slip November’s output by 20 million bu. With Sept’s US crush starting the year at a record 174.8 mil bu pace & the current export shipments 135 million ahead of its seasonal pace to reach 1.755 billion, no change in 2023/24 bean demand levels should occur. Our smaller crop could slip beans’ US ending stocks to 200 million bu this month.Corn’s US harvest is also ahead of the 5-yr average by 4%. The trade average yield is up 0.2 bu to 173.2 which would boost the total output by 15 million to 15.079 billion bu. Similar to beans, we are concerned by below-normal harvest seed moisture. This has our US yield down 0.8 bu to 172.2 bu, resulting in 69 million smaller crop of 14.995 billion bu. With the price down, both ethanol & feed demand should strength this year. US export shipments are 50 million ahead of last year, but 30 million behind corn’s seasonal to hit the current 2.025 billion forecast. The trade’s ending stocks are up 20 million while we see a 70 million decline to 2.042 billion is possible.
What’s Ahead:
South America’s crop weather, the Isael-Hamas conflict, the closing of the northern Mississippi shipping, and the upcoming USDA November crop report are all market factors going forward. Looking to up Jan soybean sales to 65% in $13.90-14.10 range, Dec corn to 50% above the $5.25., and Dec KC wheat to 65% above $7.00/bu.More By This Author:Lower Soybean & Corn Yields Reduce US Ending Stocks
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