Initial jobless claims experienced a 22K drop last week (after a 2K upward revision this week), the largest one-week decline since June 24th. Claims experienced a modest rebound in the most recent print rising back to 218K. At that level, claims are in the middle of the past couple of year’s range which is also historically healthy relative to pre-pandemic readings.
Before seasonal adjustment, claims experienced an unusually large drop back below 200K. That is the first sub-200K print since the end of October. Additionally, it is a record low relative to the comparable week of the year throughout history. While that may sound like a positive, we’d be hesitant to begin shooting off confetti. That drop and low reading are more likely a function of the Thanksgiving holiday, and as shown below, this week’s drop is only a dent to the seasonal rise in claims that is typical for this time of year. In other words, one week does not make a trend.
While the initial claims number is likely not trending in a more positive direction, the concerning climb in continuing claims has pressed on. Seasonally adjusted continuing claims have continued their rapid rise with a week-over-week increase in nine of the last ten weeks. That has resulted in a fresh two-year high of 1.927 million.
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