Image Source: PexelsFor CPI, CPI core, PCE deflator, PCE core deflator:
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for CPI (blue), CPI core (sky blue), PCE deflator (light green), PCE core deflator (red), per Eeckhout (2023). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.More By This Author:Gasoline Prices Thru January 3 Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model PredictionFX Turnover Through 2022
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