Munnelly’s Market Minute… FreepikIn Asia, stocks experienced a gradual decline following a quiet start, influenced by post-data market volatility in the US and the absence of Japanese participants due to Respect for the Aged Day. The markets are eagerly anticipating key inflation data releases later this week. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite were under pressure due to concerns about shadow banking and geopolitical frictions. Hong Kong’s losses were exacerbated by selling in the tech sector, while China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle shares slumped after its vice chairman’s arrest.Last week, financial markets adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks this year, scaling back somewhat due to signs of more robust economic activity in key developed economies. The UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed stronger-than-expected activity, while Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased in December. However, core inflation declined, reinforcing the European Central Bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The December US labor market report exceeded expectations, with employment outpacing forecasts and wage growth unexpectedly accelerating.While markets have postponed earlier expectations for Q1 rate cuts, they still anticipate significant cuts throughout the year. In the US, the first cut is now projected for May, with over 125 basis points of cuts anticipated by 2024. Similar expectations exist for the Eurozone. For the UK, the first cut is fully priced for June, with just under 125 basis points of cuts anticipated for the year.Today’s economic calendar lacks tier one data on the docket, no major releases are scheduled for the UK, but early tomorrow morning, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) will release its update on December retail activity. Footfall data from retail outlets suggest that damp weather kept shoppers away in December. In the Eurozone markets will see the release of several confidence measures. Stateside, the New York Federal Reserve will publish its monthly report on consumer expectations before the release of this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday, the U.S. December CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% monthly, as per a Reuters poll, up from 0.1% in November. Additionally, the core CPI is anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.3%, the same as in November. Fed policymaker Bostic is scheduled to share his views on the outlook for the US economy. His comments will offer insight into his thoughts on the possibility of interest rate cuts this year.  Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets) FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

 CFTC Data As Of 05/01/24

  Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 4730

 EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.1000

 GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.27

 USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 144.40

 AUDUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below .6750

 BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 44000

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