Here’s 2007-08:
Figure 1: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. NBER recession dates (post-peak to trough) shaded gray. Source: FRED, NBER.And here’s now (on same vertical scale, for context):
Figure 2: Sahm rule real time (tan), current vintage (blue), in %. Source: FRED.As long time adherent to term spread predictor of recessions, I must say doesn’t look like the recession has yet arrived. This in line with monthly and weekly business cycle indicators shown in this post, and this post.More By This Author:What’s The Actual Strength Of The Labor Market? CPS vs CES vs ADP vs ISMThe Employment Release & Business Cycle Indicators Six Measures Of NFP Employment
