USD/TRY Forecast: The Turkish Central Bank Continues Adopting Tighten Monetary Policy Procedures


Earlier, the GBP/USD pair rose to 1.2722 on Tuesday after data from the economic calendar showed that the US ISM services PMI reading came in at 52.6 in February

  • During yesterday’s trading session, the GBP/USD pair rose by a third of a percent to reach 1.2744 after the US job quit rate fell.
  • This signaled to markets that the US labor market is slowing down, which would ease wage pressures and boost the chances of a rate cut by mid-year.
  • Broadly, the dollar was weaker on the day as a US jobs survey revealed that fewer people are leaving their jobs each month to pursue higher-paying opportunities.
  • Overall, the gains in the GBP/USD exchange rate mean that the pound is now the best performing G10 currency alongside the dollar in 2024.
  •  While Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance before US lawmakers attracted media attention, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report likely had a bigger impact on financial markets. ING analysts commented, “We are more interested in the job quit rate – the percentage of workers who leave their jobs to move to a new employer each month – and that has slowed to 2.1% from 2.2%. It had reached 3% in 2022.” Moreover, the analysts explain that this slowdown suggests that while there are still many job vacancies, they are not particularly attractive, and the number of people interested in filling them is steadily decreasing.The analysts added: “This has an indirect impact because if there is less churn in the labor market, there will be less need for employers to pay up to retain employees.” “And the decline in the quit rate suggests that more heat is coming out of the labor market, with cost pressures easing further.”Currently, the JOLTs data suggests that the US jobs market is slowly stabilizing, in line with wages, and therefore inflation, with pressures easing without an alarming slowdown in net job creation and overall economic activity. A gradual, rather than pronounced, slowdown is likely to keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comfortable waiting a little longer before starting to cut US interest rates.Earlier, the GBP/USD pair rose to 1.2722 on Tuesday after data from the economic calendar showed that the US ISM services PMI reading came in at 52.6 in February, down from 53.4 in January and below consensus expectations of 53. Also, the composite index pointed to growth in February for the 14th consecutive month after a reading of 49% in December 2022, the first contraction since May 2020. At the same time, the employment index contracted for the second time in three months, to 48%, down 2.5 percentage points from 50.5% in January. TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:TRYUSD rose in early trading on Thursday, trading near its all-time high of 31.85 lira per dollar. The pair is trading in an open path to record further gains. Currently, the price is trading within an upward price channel for the daytime frame, as shown in the chart. Also, the price is moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages, which are positively crossing upwards, on most time frames from four hours to the weekly time frame, indicating buyer dominance. If the pair rises, it will target 31.95 and 32.05 respectively. Contrarily, if the price falls, it will target 31.65 and 31.50 respectively.Eventually, the forecasts for the Turkish lira suggest that the pair’s upward trend is expected to continue, targeting levels around 31.99 lira and each dip represents an opportunity to reinforce buying contracts. Furthermore, we recommend adhering to the mentioned recommendations and maintaining capital management rules.More By This Author:EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Speculators Should Prepare for Volatility This WeekAUD/USD Signal: Break and Retest Pattern Points to More UpsideBTC/USD Signal: Bullish Consolidation Continues Below $53,000

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