For S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors there was one, and only one, market moving headline during the week that was. The Federal Reserve confirmed on Wednesday, 20 March 2024 that interest rate cuts are coming in 2024.That confirmation was like lighting off a rocket on Wall Street. The index rose nearly 0.9% after the Fed’s “dot-plot” projection of future interest rates was released on Wednesday afternoon, closing at an all-time record high. The index would proceed to reach its current new record high of 5,241.53 on the following day but dipped slightly on Friday, 22 March 2024 to close out the week at 5,234.18. That value represents a 2.3% gain over its previous week’s close, making the third week of March 2024 the best of the year to date for the S&P 500.The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 12 June 2024 (2024-Q2), unchanged from last week. The expectation that the Fed will begin a series of quarter point rate cuts starting on that date and continuing at mostly twelve-week intervals is also unchanged from the previous week.With the Fed’s first rate cut expected in June 2024, investors have locked their forward looking focus on the current quarter of 2024-Q2 in setting current day stock prices. The latest update shows that even though the trajectory of the index is just off its record high, it falls almost right in the middle of the redzone forecast range we added to the chart several weeks ago, which is based on the assumption investors would be focused on 2024-Q2 at this time.latest updateOther things happened during the third week of March 2024. Here’s a summary of all the other market-moving news headlines that investors absorbed during the week, along with the week’s most influential headline.Monday, 18 March 2024
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Morning Bid: Rates, oil lifted by China’s green shoots
- Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities
- US aims to return emergency oil reserve to prior levels by year-end
- US factory production rebounds from weather-induced slump
- Inflation frustration may prompt Fed to dial back rate-cut outlook
- China’s upbeat industrial output, retail sales tempered by frail property
- China’s CNOOC discovers 100 million ton oilfield in Bohai Sea
- China’s property investment declines slow but sector still shaky
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BOJ to call time on negative interest rates and end yield curve control – Nikkei
- Explainer: Who are the BOJ’s doves and hawks?
- Japanese bank trains staff for a novel scenario: positive interest rates
- Europe’s start-ups turn to increasingly complex debt deals as cash dries up
Tuesday, 19 March 2024
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Crude oil hits new five-month highs but Citi sees possible drop to $55 by late 2025
- Oil rises to multi-month highs on Russian supply concerns
- US single-family housing starts soar in February
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Bank of Japan scraps radical policy, makes first rate hike in 17 years
- Japanese business groups welcome BOJ’s first rate hike in 17 years
- BOJ cuts maximum limit of JGB purchase amount after major policy shift
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Wall Street advances with Nvidia and Fed meeting in focus
- Nvidia stock climbs as CFO says new chip to ship in 2024
- Wall Street bonuses fell 2% for 2023, New York Comptroller says
Wednesday, 20 March 2024
- Oil slips as investors weigh Fed rate decision
- US retail sales to rise at a slower pace in 2024, says NRF
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confirmed
- Instant view: Fed stands pat on rates and view on 2024 cuts, in face of elevated inflation
- Fed policymakers stick to three-rate-cut view in ’24, but barely
- Amid forecast shift, Fed’s Powell flags uncertainty over longer-run outlook
- Fed’s Powell says balance sheet drawdown taper coming soon
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China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected
- China’s central bank reshuffles monetary policy committee
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How the BOJ’s plan for a smooth exit from negative rates unraveled
- Era of negative interest rates unlikely to be revisited soon
- ECB cannot commit to rate path even after first cut, Lagarde says
- Wall St ends higher as Fed keeps three rate cuts on the horizon
Thursday, 21 March 2024
- Oil settles lower on weaker US gasoline demand, Gaza ceasefire hopes
- US Treasury key yield curve inversion becomes the longest on record
- US existing home sales rise to one-year high in February
- US new vehicles sales set to rise in March, report shows
- Most brokerages stick by forecast of Fed rate cuts starting in June
- China central bank has room to cut bank reserves ratio further, deputy governor says
- Japan’s factory activity declines slow, service sector picks up
- BOJ’s Ueda eyes future drop in bond buying in sign of steady exit
- The great central bank policy reversal kicks off
- Swiss central bank cuts rates in surprise move, getting ahead of global peers
- Bank of England sees economy ‘moving in right direction’ for rate cuts
- Norway keeps interest rate on hold, eyes September cut
Friday, 22 March 2024
- Oil steady as Gaza ceasefire talks gain traction
- Fed’s Bostic scales back to single rate cut on the year, versus two previously
- Fed gets an earful about ‘stranglehold’ from high rates
- China yuan falls to four-month low, state banks step in
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Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end mixed after record-breaking spree as Nike, Lululemon slide
- Nike and Lululemon rattle the athletic apparel sector with bombshell earnings reports
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool’s latest estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024 (2024-Q1) decreased to +2.1% after last week’s +2.3% growth projection.More By This Author:Small Changes In Trends For U.S. Teen Employment Quarterly S&P 500 Dividend Futures Rise, Signal Potential Turbulence AheadU.S. Recession Probability Nears A Double-Top
