New Home Sales from the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report, chart by Mish.New Home Sales

New home sales are about where they were in July of 1963 (blue highlights).Sales are down 35.7 percent from the August 2020 seasonally-adjusted annualized peak of 1,029.New Homes for Sale SupplyAt the current rate of sales, there is an 8.4 month supply of homes. However, the number is bogus because it includes homes for sale that have not even been started.New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction
Allegedly, there are 463,000 new homes for sale. But 106,000 of them have not even started.85,000 are completed and another 272,000 are under construction. Data only dates to 1999, but the number under construction is on the upper end of the range.Builders are optimistic they can sell the homes they have started.The number of homes for sale and homes under construction may be flashing some serious warning signs. Both are at or above levels that preceded prior downturns.Many of those who want to buy are priced out and have other financial difficulties.Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies SoarCredit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.
Record High Credit Card DebtCredit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due. For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29. Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.Generational Homeownership Rates Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment ListThe above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership ReportThose struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.ConclusionsTwo different polls show millennials and zoomers are unhappy. And they are unhappy for the reasons I stated.Many have concluded they will never be able to afford a house or have kids. Those who have concluded that are likely correct.For more discussion, please see US Drops to Number #23 in the World Happiness ReportAre we about to run out of people who want a home and can afford a home?More By This Author:In The Next 5 Years Employment In Age Groups 60+ Will Drop By ~12.5 Million
Existing Home Sales Surge 9.5 Percent, Median Sales Price Up 8th Month
Fed’s Dot Plot Is More Hawkish Towards Cuts In March Vs. December