WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday as the market corrected after news reports of a dispute between the Russian government and a private exporter named Rif seen the previous day. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 560, 567, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 590, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 645, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 669, and 677 May.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and at new lows for the move, but recovered from its worst losses of the day in the second half of the session. Trends are down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1672, 1660, and 1648 May and resistance is at 1718, 1744, and 1751 May.CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday. Corn was weaker on ideas that the stocks report on Thursday will show ample supplies for this year and that the planting intentions report will show that ample supplies will likely continue well into next year. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 441, 446, and 448 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 376 May.SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday before the USDA reports are released on Thursday. Some buying was tied to forecasts for very dry weather in southern Brazil that could hurt developing crops. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1217, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4760, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 4980, 6000, and 5030 May.CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 631.00, 619.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4050, and 4000 May, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4360 May.More By This Author:Softs Report – Tuesday, March 26
Grains Report – Friday, March 22
Softs Report – Thursday, March 21
