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SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX 4/12/24 at 5123.41.Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
The SPY touched into the gap of May 15 last Thursday and volume decreased by 5% compared to the gap day of May 15 volume; ideally, we would have like to see 10% or greater drop in volume to show the gap has support. There is a good probability that last Thursday’s low may be tested and if that test comes on 10% lighter volume; the sideways pattern may end and the next rally phase may begin. The bigger trend is up and short-term trend is sideways with a possible attempt to test last Thursday’s low. Staying long SPX.
We updated this chart from last Thursday, we said last Thursday, “The bottom window is the weekly SPX/VIX ratio and next higher window is the weekly SPX. Bearish implication for the SPX is implied when the SPX makes higher highs and the SPX/VIX ratio makes lower highs. We noted those instances in shaded pink. These noted areas picked all the stances of a significant high in the SPX going back to 2003. What we have currently is the SPX making higher highs and the SPX/VIX ratio also making higher suggests the current uptrend may continue until the SPX makes higher highs and the SPX/VIX ratio makes lower highs. Short-term trend may be sideways this week but the bigger trend remains up. ”Bigger trend remains bullish and higher highs intermediate term is expected,
We updated this chart from last Thursday and last Thursday we said, “Above is the monthly HUI/Gold ratio (second window down from top), and below is the monthly HUI. We drew a trend connecting the highs going back to 2009 on the monthly HUI/Gold ratio and this ratio has been attacking this trend line starting in 2020. A break of this trend line to the upside would have significant bullish implication. We drew a trend line on the monthly HUI going back to 2011. This trend is also the Neckline of a Head and Shoulder bottom and we circled in red the breakout. This breakout of the long-term trend line and Neckline also has significant bullish implication on the bigger time frames suggesting the monthly HUI/Gold ratio will have a breakout at some point due to one follows the other and probably sooner rather then later. Gold stocks appear to be the place to be.” The month of May ends this Friday and it appears the monthly HUI break out will happen.More By This Author:The Week Before Memorial Day
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