Image source: PixabayThe Philadelphia Fed has a GDP method that blends, not averages GDP and GDI. They revised the indicator significantly lower on Thursday.GDPplus from Philadelphia Fed and GDI from the BEA, chart by MishIs GDP or GDI a Better Measure?The Philadelphia Fed prefers GDI over GDP but it prefers a blend (not an average) which it calls GDPplus even more. Note that GDP_E = GDP and GDP_I = GDI in the discussion below.The GDPplus Working Paper is mostly geekish math, but there are some readable snips.

In the U.S., in particular, two often-divergent GDP estimates exist, a widely-used expenditure-side version, GDP_E [GDP], and a much less widely-used income-side version, GDP_I [GDI].

Nalewaik (2010) and Fixler and Nalewaik (2009) make clear that, at the very least, GDP_I deserves serious attention and may even have properties in certain respects superior to those of GDP_E. That is, if forced to choose between GDP_E and GDP_I , a surprisingly strong case exists for GDP_I . But of course one is not forced to choose between GDP_E and GDP_I , and a GDP estimate based on both GDP_E and GDP_I may be superior to either one alone. In this paper we propose and implement a framework for obtaining such a blended estimate.

Recession OutlookAfter revisions (and what isn’t revised?), there has not been an instance where GDPplus was negative two quarters in a row when the economy was not in recession.This is very unlike GDP which often has two quarters of negative GDP without the economy being in recession.The problem is revisions. The first release of GDI is noisy.GDPplus Recession Track RecordThat’s a very impressive track record, with no misses and no false positives as long as one waits for the second revision to GDI.In late 2022, I was positive the economy was in recession but look what happened.Positive Revision Shock!The Philadelphia Fed revised GDPplus higher reversed string of negative GDPplus numbers.As revised, there was not a second consecutive quarter of negative GDPplus.Q:Why the revisions?
A: Don’t blame GDPplus or the Philadelphia Fed. GDPplus is subject to huge revisions when the BEA revises GDP and GDI.It’s important to note that the highlighted area is 5 months. That’s not quite two quarters. I think that 5 months is the minimum time needed for confirmation of the indicator.This is not a real-time indicator. There isn’t any.Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly LowerYesterday, I commented More Soft Economic Data, Q1 GDP Revised Lower, Q4 GDI Significantly LowerSignificant Negative Revisions

The BEA revised GDI for 2024 Q4 from 4.8 percent to 3.6 percent. This resulted in major revisions to GDPplus.How the 2024 Q1 GDP Update Impacted GDPplus

Note that the Philadelphia Fed had a GDPplus estimate for 2024 Q1 before GDI for 2024 Q1 was even released.No Recession Signal YetThe BEA and Philadelphia Fed both significantly lowered their estimates, but I doubt GDPplus for Q1 goes negative from 2.1 percent or GDI negative from 1.5 percent.However, I do expect more revisions, all negative.Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing ViewsI discussed another recession indicator in my May 28 post Is the US in Recession Now? Two Prominent Competing ViewsPlease give that post a look if you haven’t. It’s very meaty with a detailed look at the McKelvey recession indicator.I intend to do a follow-up post on McKelvey next week. As of right now, I do not think we are in recession yet, with emphasis on yet.I have this comment from Lacy Hunt “Payroll jobs overshot the QCEW in Q3 and Q4 in 2024 and the BED in Q3.  Given the weakness in many indicators in Q1/24, then for me it is very likely that payroll survey continued to overshoot in Q1/24.  The pattern of downward revisions will continue.  This happened in at critical turning points in the past including 2008.“I discuss the BED data and negative job revisions in my link above.I am confident the US will be in recession this year.Label the recession murder by poison.More By This Author:Why Consumers Are Angry About The Economy In Five Pictures The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure, PCE, Shows No Further ProgressGDP Vs. GDI: Why The Huge Discrepancy And Which Is The Better Measure Of The Economy?