On the top window is the equity Put/Call ratio which closed yesterday at .76. Readings above 75 predict that the market will be higher 88% of the time in next 5 days = average gain of 1.3%.
On the next window down is the Total Put/Call ratio closing yesterday at 1.56. Readings above 1.20 predict a higher market for 5 days, 92% of the time with average gain of 1.8%. On the bottom window is the Index Put/Call ratio closing yesterday at 1.76. Readings above 1.75 predict that the market will be higher 90% of the time in the next five days. First upside target is gap level near 2700 on the SPX; could go to previous high near 2800. Long SPX on 3/22/18 at 2643.69.
Last Friday the TRIN closed at 1.29 and TICKS at -784; Last Thursday the TRIN closed at 2.11 and the ticks at minus 273; both are bullish combinations. Today the TRIN closed at 1.51 and Ticks at -190 = bullish combination suggesting a bottom is near. Earlier we said, “Friday produced a high volume low and most high volume lows are tested at some point to put in a lasting bottom and we where expecting that come today. Instead the market rallied pushing the test into some future date. It is possible that the market could fall back tomorrow and put in the test and as long the test comes in on lighter volume, a worthwhile low will form.”
Today’s decline did not touch Friday’s low but could test that low tomorrow. On the chart above we identified previous high volume lows and their test on lighter volumes setting up the next rally phase. Tomorrow the market could setup the next rally phase depending on the lighter volume test.
On bullish GDX runs, the GDX/GLD ratio outperforms GDX and that is not happening here. You can notice that the GDX is holding above its previous lows where GDX/GLD ratio falls below its previous lows, showing GDX/GLD ratio is weaker than GDX and that is a bearish sign for GDX.
