BofA’s practically omniscient analysts were more in line with consensus this month for their US retail sales forecast, with a return to growth expected in May’s data (after a less enthusiastic April print).Notably, however, consensus and BofA were over-optimistic as the headline retail sales rose just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp). Worse still, April’s 0.0% change was revised down to a 0.2% MoM decline, leaving the headline (nominal) retail sales print up just 2.3% YoY…
Source: BloombergEx-Autos, the picture was worse with sales dropping 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp) and Ex Autos and Gas Stations rose just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.4% MoM exp).
Gas Stations and Food Services spending were the biggest downside drivers, offsetting increased spending on motor vehicles and non-store (online) retailers…
Source: BloombergThe crucial control group – which is used in the GDP calculation also disappointed in May and April was revised lower – not a great start for Q2’s GDP (April -05%, May +0.4%). That is the fourth monthly miss in a row…
Source: BloombergAnd finally, admittedly a crude approximation, adjusting the nominal retail sales print for inflation (CPI), we see real retail sales declined in May…
Source: Bloombergah, Bidenomics…More By This Author:China’s New Home Prices Plunge The Most Since October 2014Mondelez Says Oreo Cookie Prices Won’t Be Hiked Despite Cocoa Chaos In West AfricaProducer Price Inflation Cooler Than Expected (But Hovers Near 1 Year Highs)
