JULY WHT 
July Wht has been on a wild ride indeed – rallying $1.70 in just 6 weeks off the drought in the Black Sea – then giving almost the entire rally back off rain finally hitting S Russia & a robust Winter Wht harvest pressure (27% in – avg -14)! However, the down may have run its course as the mkt is very oversold – plus harvest pressure will abate once the crop is 50% in! As well, cumulative wkly inspections are running 21% over 2023 & global/exporter balance sheets are historically tight!
JULY CORN 
For the past 3 months, July Corn has been range-bound (440-475) – as you can clearly see! A 30% jump in exports over 2023 has supported on breaks & the potential for a bumper crop has capped the rallies! Lately, the disparity between the Western & Eastern Corn Belt weather patterns has re-enforced the sideways pattern! Wet & cool in the West & dry & hot in the East! The Crop Ratings out Mon at 3pm validated the dichotomy – Ill gd-ex dropped 9% & Iowa gd-ex gained 1%! The overall crop rating dropped 2% to 72 – still a relatively high rating for mid-June but not really relevant to the final yields! There is unusual pressure on the US to produce a solid crop – given the expected shortfalls in Brazil, Mexico, China & the Black Sea! Of course, the critical time is dead ahead as corn is normally made in July! A high-pressure ridge is forecast into the 4th of July! A heads-up for all – Wed 6-19-24 is Juneteenth – a national holiday – & the mkts are closed – reopening at 7pm Wed!
JULY BEANS 
There’s a clear line of delineation between the Western Corn Belt & the Eastern Corn Belt – cooler/wetter vs hotter/drier – & the bearish side has dominated the beans of late! In addition, Brazilian farmer selling “in front” of the new 20% export tax has exacerbated the downside! Gd-Ex crop conditions dropped 2% to 70% – still high for this time of the year! Off the high-pressure ridge currently moving in, next week’s ratings are expected to drop another 2-4%! Beans are 93% in (91-avg)! Bean’s critical month is August – still a month away! Much like the corn, due to global shortfalls, the US Bean Crop is very important to the supply/demand balance! Also, keep in mind July Beans are currently $2.50 cheaper than 2023!
AUG CAT 
The upside gap left last week is a bullish chart signal & might portend the Aug Cat challenging its 185.00 contract highs scored in mid-Mar! As well, cash has been strong & China’s May beef imports were up 31% over 2023! However, the mkt might “even up” in front of this Friday’s COF Report – predicted to show cattle-on-feed at 98.9% & placements at 98.3%! A strong beef demand period into the upcoming 4th of July holiday should re-enforce the uptrend!
JULY HOGS 
FINALLY! After a brutal 6-wk, $20 freefall, July Hogs have technically confirmed a low – after Friday’s reversal higher was confirmed by yesterday’s strong close! Cash & cut-out trade hasn’t exactly green-lighted the “turning point” but we expect the strong seasonal beef/pork demand & the wide disparity between beef & pork in the supermarket to validate the low! As well, the extreme cheapness of pork hasn’t been lost on our export partners & we expect solid foreign demand to go hand-in-hand with domestic appeal!More By This Author:AgMaster Report – Wednesday, June 12
AgMaster Report – Tuesday, June 4
AgMaster Report – Wednesday, May 22
