Time for a pop quiz. What was the biggest market-moving headline from the past week?BZZZ, time’s up! It’s a trick question because no news story moved the needle for the stock market during the past week. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed out the week of trading at 5,460.48, down 0.08% from where it closed the previous Friday.The lack of market moving news and change in the level of the index coincides with the early arrival of the summer doldrums for the U.S. stock market. This is the period after most companies have reported their earnings for the previous quarter, where we must now wait until the next quarter to find out what changes in outlook might alter the index’ trajectory by changing investor expectations.The relative lack of action in the week’s trading can be seen in the latest update for the alternative futures chart, in which we find the level of stock prices falls to the low side of the trajectory associated with investors focusing on 2024-Q3. latest update2024-Q3 continues to hold the forward-looking focus of investors because of the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in years. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3), the same as it forecast in the previous week. The tool anticipates the Fed will start a series of 0.25% rate cuts on that date, which will occur at 12 week intervals well into 2025.Meanwhile, we weren’t kidding when we said it was a slow news week. Here’s what passed as market-moving news in the week that was.Monday, 24 June 2024
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Oil prices rise on fuel demand expectations, easing US dollar
- Rising US labor costs threaten to derail new LNG projects
- Fed’s Mester: Mortgage bond sales should remain option for Fed
- Fed’s Goolsbee still looking for data inflation is cooling – CNBC
- Fed’s Daly: inflation not the only risk, policy must ‘exhibit care’
- BOJ debated need for timely rate hike, signals chance of July action
Tuesday, 25 June 2024
- Oil prices steady as inflation worries limit summer demand optimism
- Big US banks expected to be cautious on shareholder payouts
- Fed’s Bowman: need steady policy rate ‘for some time’ to beat inflation
- Fed’s Cook: ‘At some point’ it will be time to cut interest rates
- China’s retail outlook dims after mid-year shopping festival flop
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Japan’s business-to-business service inflation hits 2.5% in May
- Bank of Japan opens door for a hawkish double surprise
- Japan to respond appropriately to excessive yen volatility, official says
Wednesday, 26 June 2024
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U.S. crude imports touch two-year high despite lukewarm demand
- Oil edges higher on inventory drawdown outlook, Middle East risks
- US new home sales slump; supply at more than 16-year high
- US banks suffer steeper losses, but retain large cushions in annual Fed health check
- Fed’s Bowman: inflation will decline with policy rate held steady
- Sharp Japan GDP downgrade possible, affecting monetary policy, analysts say
- Yen slumps to lowest since 1986, putting traders on red alert
- Amazon hits $2 trillion in valuation on AI fervor, rate cut bets
- The S&P 500 is the ‘perfectly constructed index’ – Goldman Sachs
Thursday, 27 June 2024
- Oil settles $1 up, war risk premium outweighs ample US stocks
- US weekly jobless claims, equipment spending data point to slowing economy
- Car affordability affecting auto lending market, study shows
- Fed’s Bowman: not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation is ebbing
- Fed’s Bostic says inflation moving in ‘right direction,’ sees one Q4 rate cut
- You can continue to cut rates, researchers tell ECB
Friday, 28 June 2024
- Oil prices to stay steady as China demand woes offset Mideast risks
- US inflation cools in May; consumer spending rises moderately
- Fed gets heartening inflation data, but slow road ahead
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Fed’s Barkin says he’ll ‘proceed deliberately’ on policy
- Fed’s Barkin: consumer demand solid, but not frothy
- New York Fed says reverse repo inflows hit highest level since start of year
- Inflation in Japan’s capital accelerates, keeps BOJ rate hike prospects alive
- ECB’s Villeroy: confident we can look through data noise
- S&P 500’s stellar H1 sputters in the homestretch amid concerns over breadth, valuation
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool’s forecast of annualized real GDP growth rate during 2024-Q2 dropped to +2.2%, falling from the +3.1% growth projected a week earlier.When it comes to market moving news, this upcoming week may be even slower than the trading week ending on Friday, 28 June 2024 given the timing of the Fourth of July market holiday in the United States. We’ll all find out if that hypothesis holds soon enough….More By This Author:The Cost Of A Summer Cookout In 2024 Upward Revisions Alter View Of Trends For New Home Market Cap The Rise of Nvidia
