We kicked off the day with Export Sales, Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
With the upcoming Unemployment data let’s refresh What ADP released its monthly employment change data. In June, private businesses in the US added 150,000 jobs, which was the lowest in 5 months and 339,000 jobs less than last year’s June spike. The June ADP data also fell 10,000 jobs below expectations. The service sector added 136,000 jobs, led by leisure/hospitality, professional/business service and trade/transportation/utilities. The goods sector added just 140,000 jobs, with gains of 27,000 jobs in construction pared back by 8,000 job losses in natural resources & mining and 5,000 job losses in manufacturing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrollssurvey has repeatedly outperformed the ADP data over the last year, However, skepticism of the nonfarm payroll data is growing amid the divergence from the Household Survey and perpetual downward (never upward) revisions that have occurred in the last 2-years.The latest on Hurricane Beryl, the storm just under a Category 3 and made landfall in the Yucatan and moving North-Northwest which must be tracked closely with the possibility of bounce back in the Gulf and gaining strength on the water like Katrina years ago. Caution to the wind and locals understand not to underestimate any storm. Everyone will be tracking this storm over the weekend. So far the energy markets have been acting apprehensive and quiet, however I would not want to roll the dice and be short going into the weekend. Central US Maintains Drier Trend Beyond Weekend; Heat Lacking Next 10 Days; Models Committed to Warmer Second Half of July: The Central US forecast is consistent and broadly favorable into July 11-12. Excessive rain and lack of GDDS are regional issues, but most important is that the heart of the US Corn Belt will be void of extreme heat into the very early part of pollination. Rainfall accumulation of 1-2” favors MN/WI as well as Southern Midwest and KY the next 72 hours. High temps across the entirety of the Plains & Midwest will exist in the 70’s & low 80’s into July 12th. The 6-15 day forecast uncertainty is high amid elevated tropical activity and likelihood of additional Gulf storms. The models are in agreement to little/no rain falls across the Plains and Midwest July 8-18. A warming of temps is probable beyond July 12. Heat is forecast to favor Canada, the N US Plains, and E Midwest.Census US corn exports in May totaled 235 Mil Bu, vs. 240 Mil a year ago but 16% larger than the Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) shipments. FGIS continues to understate US corn disappearance and record demand from Mexico, where shipments via rail and truck go unaccounted in weekly inspection reports. Using FGIS data, Ag Resources (ARC) is estimating official US corn exports at 220 Mil Bu, vs. 150 Mil a year ago. Sep-June US corn exports are calculated at 1,891 Mil Bu, up 29% year-over-year. Pace analysis thus far suggest USDA’s 2,150 Mil Bu annual forecast is correct. But given the US competitive position in the global marketplace. ARC expects shipments in Jul & Aug to be well above last year at 140-150 Mil Bu/month. This places final 23/24 US corn exports at 2,170-2,190 Mil. ARC also points out that Mexico through May has physically imported 411 Mil Bu of US corn, up 32% from the previous year. Mexican demand for US corn stays record large through 24/25 crop year.More By This Author:Hurricane Beryl Breaking Records Now CAT 5. The Corn & Ethanol Report
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Duel Weather Threats & Bushels Per Acre. The Corn & Ethanol Report
