Nearly-entrenched softening is indicated by non-governmental Jobs data, and that enhances the prospects of a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later.But it is debatable how the market would react to that; given it reinforces the view of hesitating growth (not as strong as some optimists expect); while at the same time it could help smaller stocks that are more reliant of financing.However, if growth isn’t particular strong or weaker; the Fed might forestall a bit longer (having nothing to do with upcoming Elections) and probably watch two factors: 1) a reticence to cut much if they worried about attracting foreign capital to our Treasury Auctions (not too much a problem given lower rates for most other industrial countries that are normally prominent in our Auctions); or 2) Oil prices, as higher Oil is inflationary and deflects some of the diminishing pace of higher prices.So issues for credit concerns almost weigh on all this; suffice to say as it goes I still suspect not later than September we’ll get a rate cut; and not much as they are so timid about policy now; leaving them the prospect of another later.As to the Jobs number specifically: labor data released this morning reflected a 206,000 increase in non-farm payroll adds in June and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.1%. Economists expected jobless rates to remain steady at 4%. This will do for not negating a friendlier Fed ahead.
Market X-ray: Record high Index closes after fading earlier was pretty good; especially for a full session sandwiched into an otherwise long weekend.The new week features the June CPI report; which is not necessarily going to help stocks; but it could hurt if it showed significantly higher prices. Probably won’t hurt, but retail gasoline prices more recently bumped higher again.
From an overall ‘flow’ situation, we continues to anticipate better conditions for the smaller stocks (a little seen today; but more hoped for in days ahead). For today; it was mega-caps with record highs; like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle and Apple. Our AMD and ON Semiconductor were also robust.Smaller stocks slightly benefited from rotation into value; but not bigger scope at least yet. 
So it’s debatable whether this is favorable rotation; but my bias is that it is so. Proof is in the pudding however, so we definitely need to be served lots more pudding. Next week could be a good sign of ample pudding or still dieting.I’m minimizing the implications of domestic politics for now; as generally stock markets remain constructive in an election year. Perhaps geopolitics remains more pertinent in that respect, and although nothing’s resolved, there is more chatter about Middle East peace talks taking place next week.
Bottom line: The S&P grinds higher as does Nasdaq. Hard to discern any of the news stories as particularly causing blips; though the market absorbed the Jobs report adequately; and it wasn’t particularly earth-shattering either way.I have had in-mind that the Fed ought to move sooner (like this month) with a rate cut, and psychologically assist matters, while not pushing it closer to the Elections. However there are mixed views at the Fed; with Chairman Powell, seemingly, leaning more dovishly.Biden will host a three-day NATO summit in Washington starting Tuesday. As part of that event, we are told he will conduct a rare solo press conference, which could well prove the most treacherous challenge he’s faced since last week’s debate — and perhaps even more so.
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