Image Source: PixabayMisses across the board today in CPI left US macro surprise data languishing in ‘not so soft landing’ territory…Source: Bloomberg…as inflation and growth factors are now tumbling in a ‘recession-y’ kinda way…Source: Bloomberg…all of which prompted a surge in rate-cut hopes, with 2024 expectations at their highest since April (61bps) as 2025 is now pricing in four full rate-cuts…Source: BloombergWhich sent gold higher, the dollar lower, and Treasury yields plunging (led by the short-end)…Source: Bloomberg… BUT the picture was very different in equity market land…Source: Bloomberg…where Nasdaq was monkeyhammered while Small Caps surged. The Dow clung to unchanged as the S&P ended off around 1% weighed down by Tech obviously…That RTY/NDX spread was over 600bps at its peak today. By the close, it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002…Source: Bloomberg…and oddly, breadth was crazy positive despite the ugliness as the reverse MAG7 trade struck hard…388 members of the S&P are currently trading up on the day vs 111 in the red (top 5 breadth day of the year).TSLA tumbled on robotaxi-delays talk…NVDA stalled at its previous record close and dropped over 5%…However, as Goldman’s traders noted, as big as today’s moves are, they hardly register on long-term charts…Source: BloombergBut, the NDX/RTY pair does remain at a key support level for now…Source: BloombergIt has been 48 days since all the Mag7 names closed red on the same day, the longest streak in > 10 years.Moves felt huge today (and they are), but important to keep some context (h/t Bartlett):

Finally, before we leave stocks, volumes on Goldman’s trading desk were tracking higher +27% vs the 20dma and index trading leading the way w/ ETF’s capturing 31% of the overall tape.Both LOs and HFs much better for sale.

There was plenty of activity in other asset classes too…The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal on the dovishness back to pre-June Payrolls lows…Source: Bloomberg..helped lower by alleged BOJ intervention to strengthen the yen…Source: BloombergGold soared back near record highs with spot prices topping $2400 once again…Source: BloombergCrude prices managed gains too with WTI back up to $83…Source: BloombergAnd Powell and Biden better hope that oil prices (and thus gas prices) start coming down soon or today’s CPI may be overwhelmed…Source: BloombergStill, if you think you had a turbulent day, give a thought for President Biden who is now behind none other than Kamala Harris in the betting for who will get the Democratic Party nod…Source: BloombergTime to get back on your knees, Joe!More By This Author:Futures Dip Ahead Of “Very Good” CPICocoa Grinding Estimates Suggest Demand Destruction NearingStock Fragility Is The Highest On Record