Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected, But Look At The Details -

Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected, But Look At The Details

Jul 16, 2024Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

Retail sales from the commerce department, chart by MishThe Bloomberg Econoday consensus expected retail sales would decline by 0.3 percent in May.Instead, the Census Department reported flat retail sales with an upgrade to May from 0.1 to 0.3 percent.
Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month Motor vehicles and parts decline 2.0 percent vs a rise in online sales of 1.9 percent. Online merchandise is heavily imported goods.Monthly noise masks long term trends but the online sales vs motor vehicles detail that caught my eye.
Advance Retail Sales Key Points

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above June 2023.

Total sales for the April 2024 through June 2024 period were up 2.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from May 2024, but up 2.0 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year.

Nonstore retailers were up 8.9 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 4.4 percent (±2.1 percent) from June 2023.

Mirage of InflationThe key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
Nonstore Retail Sales as Percent of Advance Retail Sales
Online Shopping Chart Notes

I created the above chart by calculating the percentage of things bought online that normally can be purchased online.

The calculation excludes the obvious, like gasoline and restaurant dining. It also excludes auto sales and grocery shopping.

While one can buy groceries online, nearly everyone buys the vast majority of their groceries in physical stores. Things like Doordash are trivial vs eating out and will remain that way perpetually.

Judging from the lead chart and the chart above, online sales will soon pass the sales of motor vehicles and parts. The former is heavily imports.
Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable DeficitOn the fiscal reality side, please note Powell Says the US Really Needs to Fix the Unsustainable Deficit

Jerome Powell: I am very worried over time about the deficits that we are running. It’s not the Fed’s job. We don’t give Congress advice. But let me just say, that we are on an unsustainable path.

Is this a great economy or what?More By This Author:Powell Says The US Really Needs To Fix The Unsustainable DeficitCongratulations, UK – Labour Confirms Brexit Reversal Is Dead And BuriedProducer Price Index Hotter Than Expected, Led By Services