SEPT CORN
The 7-12-24 USDA Report issued last Friday was friendly – basically leaving production at 15.1 & yield at 181.00 – both as expected but lowering both US & World carry-out for 23-24 & 24-25! That resulted in an up day Friday – however, benign pollination weather over the W/E & the Trump assassination attempt Sat both pressured the mkt Mon! The consensus is that the incident helped Trump & that his tariff policies with China would be harmful to grain trade! Finally, last nite, the Gd-Ex ratings stayed at 68% (exp 1-2% higher) & this gave a boost to corn today! Mon inspections were solid at 1.07mmt & cumulatively are up 31% for the year! The short fund position is a record & would offer extensive short-covering on good news!
AUG BEANS
Aug Beans have been in virtual “free fall” in the past 10 days – dropping a full $1.00 (1170 – 1075)! Non-threatening weather & anticipated tariff policies against China – should Trump get elected – have applied continuous pressure on prices the last few days – as well, Monday Inspections were a meager 168,000 mt! A 53-53.5 yield has already been built into the price structure! However, the mkt is grossly oversold, the Friday Crop Report was friendly & Beans really aren’t made until August! Also, the lower prices should increase export demand! An upside correction is overdue
SEPT WHT
Sept Wht has been pummeled by a negative USDA Report which raised US Wht Production & yesterday’s Gd-Ex Crop Rating at 77% – the highest since June 2019! The result was a 45 cent drop in Sept Wht (580-525) in a mere 4 trading days! But harvest at 71% (avg -62) is well over the half-way mark & harvest pressure should be easing now! And recent exports have been superb – yesterday at 533 mmt with the cumulative #’s running 26% over 2023! Much like her “sister mkts”, Sept Wht is quite oversold!
AUG CAT
After correcting a quick $7.00 (188-181) last week, the mkt has congested in a tight range – closing 4 consecutive days within a 50 cent range (182-182.50)! The Aug Cattle is trading $12 under last weeks cash & exports have been solid! But the mkt, after a sterling upswing – now can’t seem to make up its mind – whether to resume its up or continue lower – probably confirming a top! Demand will play a big role in determining the outcome – & with the wide disparity between pork & beef in the grocery store, the much cheaper pork may be getting the nod!
AUG HOGS
After several false starts – in attempting to carve out a bottom after a stunning $24 plummet (108-84), Aug Hogs appear to have finally “done the deed” – with a strong key reversal last week – on heavy volume – followed by several strong closes – resulting in a near vertical $7 upsurge (84-91)! The technical confirmation of a low was supported by positive fundamentals as various reports of African Swine Fever spreading in Asia have thrown demand pork’s way! Further support from reduced slaughter & avg hog weights would be welcome in validating the turn-around!More By This Author:AgMaster Report – Tuesday, July 9
AgMaster Report – Thursday, July 4
AgMaster Report – Tuesday, June 25