Daily Market Outlook – Wednesday, July 17


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 Asian stocks rose, joining a global surge, as the anticipation of the Fed starting to reduce interest rates led to a rush into riskier sectors of the market.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which measures regional benchmarks, rebounded after a three-day decline following the record highs in US equities, propelling global stocks to a new peak. However, the index’s earlier gains were tempered by a drop in Japanese stocks after the US cautioned its allies about stricter trade regulations in the China crackdown. Meanwhile, traders in Hong Kong and mainland China awaited further details from the Third Plenum. Risk appetite seems to have returned in Asia as concerns about geopolitical and trade threats sparked by the increasing prospects of a Donald Trump administration have eased. The optimism surrounding the Fed’s potential rate cut, coupled with signs of a retail recovery in the US, has bolstered sentiment.During the grand opening of the new parliament, King Charles of Britain will announce the agenda of Keir Starmer’s Labour government, focused on rebuilding the economy amidst political turmoil. In June, there were continued concerns about the stickiness of UK inflation. Although headline inflation had returned to target the month before, the latest UK CPI report revealed a lack of improvement in the underlying measures. Unfortunately, none of the measures showed any signs of progress. The CPI remained unchanged at 2.0% year-over-year (compared to a median forecast of 1.9%), while core CPI stayed at 3.5% year-over-year and services inflation remained at 5.7% year-over-year, both slightly higher than the survey estimates.Gold reached record highs in Asia due to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, while Taiwan stocks were affected by Donald Trump’s indecisiveness regarding the United States’ dedication to the island in his comments to Bloomberg Businessweek. “Taiwan has taken away our chip business,” Trump stated. “They are extremely wealthy… I don’t see any difference between them and an insurance policy. Why are we doing this?” Shares in Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC dropped by 1.4%.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • IMF Warns Sticky Inflation Could Keep Interest Rates ‘Higher For Even Longer’
  • Starmer To Press Ahead With Legislation Aimed At Boosting UK Growth
  • Starmer To Press Ahead With Legislation Aimed At Boosting UK Growth
  • The IMF Upgrades Forecast For UK Economic Growth – Boost For Labour Government
  • UK and EU consider holding first summit to improve post-Brexit relationship
  • RBNZ’s Less Hawkish Stance Drags Down Kiwi, Fuels Rate-Cut Bets
  • Inflation outcome shores up view the RBNZ will cut by November
  • UK Can Adjust Public Debt Rule To Ease Impact Of BoE Losses, Say Investors
  • Japanese Yen Continues To Depreciate Despite Intervention Threat
  • Russia Plans To Make OPEC+ Compensation Oil Cuts In Warm Seasons

  • (Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0850 (802M), 1.0880-85 (734M), 1.0890-1.0900 (1.2BLN)
  • 1.0920-25 (901M)
  • USD/CHF: 0.8800 (450M), 0.8850 (500M), 0.9050-60 (543M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2900 (310M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8350 (360M), 0.8400-15 (312M), 0.8450 (310M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6700 (408M), 0.6750-60 (414M), 0.6795-0.6800 (410M)
  • AUD/NZD: 1.1050 (304M), 1.1075 (250M), 1.1150 (271M)
  • USD/JPY: 157.05 (751M), 158.40 (300M), 158.50 (1.3BLN), 158.60 (351M)
     
  • CFTC Data As Of 9/7/24

  • Japanese yen net short position is -182,033 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 3,623 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 84,690 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -46,088 contracts
  • Bitcoin net short position is -118 contracts
  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 47,949 contracts to 341,624
  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 24,304 contracts to 977,432
     
  • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5550

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 5475 opens 5450
  • Primary support 5400
  • Primary objective is 5700
  • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.0650
  • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
  • Primary support is 1.2690
  • Primary objective 1.3137/60
  • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 156

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 156 opens 153
  • Primary support 152
  • Primary objective is 164
  • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2400 opens 2330
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2598
  • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 62000

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 67000 opens 70000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 70000
  • More By This Author:FTSE Breaking Hat Trick Of Gains Ahead Of UK Inflation Data
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