Daily Market Outlook – Thursday, July 18


Cutout paper illustration representing scheme and Stocks inscriptionImage Source: Pexels
 On Thursday, Asian stocks experienced a decline, driven by a widespread sell-off in the technology sector amid concerns over potential tightening of US restrictions on chip sales to China. The region saw significant losses in Japanese and South Korean stocks, with the Topix index dropping by as much as 1.5%. Tokyo Electron was particularly hard hit for the second consecutive day, experiencing an approximately 11% decline, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing also dropped by as much as 4.3%. Meanwhile, the performance of Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks was mixed, as US futures showed a slight increase.The recent sell-off in the tech sector gained momentum this week following reports that the United States was considering stricter restrictions on chip exports to China. This, combined with comments on Taiwan by Donald Trump, has raised geopolitical concerns and set a negative tone for the European market hours.The technology index for pan-European STOXX 600 is once again in focus after experiencing its largest one-day percentage drop since December 2022 on Wednesday, largely due to ASML dragging it lower. Investors in the chip industry have been cautious due to Washington’s protective stance towards the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry, which is seen as strategically important for competing against China.According to Bloomberg news, the U.S. has informed allies that it is contemplating the use of severe trade restrictions if companies continue to provide China with access to advanced semiconductor technology. Additionally, comments from Republican presidential candidate Trump regarding Taiwan have led to a significant decline in chip stocks, resulting in a market value loss of over $500 billion.Chip stocks have been a driving force behind this year’s global share rally, propelling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record highs. Some analysts believe that the recent market movements are a result of investors adjusting their positions.Meanwhile, the European Central Bank policy meeting will take center stage later in the day, with expectations for the central bank to maintain interest rates. Traders will closely watch for any comments from officials that may provide insight into future rate cuts. These comments are likely to influence the euro, which reached a four-month high on Wednesday as traders fully priced in a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following remarks from officials. The yen experienced volatility after reaching its highest level in six weeks on Thursday, with traders still cautious due to suspected interventions.
 Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • Starmer Seeks To Start Rebuilding Relations With Europe
  • Rachel Reeves To Outline Rules Preventing Another Liz Truss-Style Budget
  • Nancy Pelosi Warns Biden Of 2024 Presidential Race Peril
  • US Democratic Sen. Schumer Told Biden To End His Re-Election Bid
  • Japan’s Exports Grew For Seventh Straight Month In June
  • Australia Unemployment Edges Up; Amid Population And Participation Growth
  • Japan Arranging To Shoulder $3.3 Billion In G7 Loans For Ukraine
  • Oil Prices Rise On Bigger-Than-Expected Drop In US Crude Stocks
  • Gold Price Stays Supported At $2,450 Amid Risk Aversion, Fed Easing Bets
  • Warner Bros Discovery Plan Split Digital Streaming And Studio Businesses Legacy TV
  • Hong Kong’s Ether ETFs Face US Competition, Investors May Flock To City
  • (Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
     FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

  • (1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
  • EUR/USD: 1.0880 (1.4BLN), 1.0895-1.0905 (3.1BLN) , 1.0915-25 (2.4BLN)
  • 1.0930-40 (1BLN), 1.0950 (1BLN)
  • EUR/CHF: 0.9640 (250M), 0.9700 (655M), 0.9750 (1.1BLN)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2925 (575M), 1.2975-80 (1.5BLN), 1.3000 (503M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8375 (936M), 0.8400 (509M), 0.8425 (354M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6720-25 (447M), 0.6735 (428M), 0.6800-05 (1.3BLN)
  • AUD/NZD: 1.1000 (654M), 1.1050 (224M), 1.1075 (190M), 1.1100 (280M)
  • NZD/USD: 0.6040 (500M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3550 (1.1BLN), 1.3690-1.3700 (474M), 1.3730 (513M), 1.3750 (300M)
  • USD/JPY: 155.50-60 (527M), 156.00 (325M), 156.70-80 (600M)
  • 156.95-157.00 (1.9BLN), 157.10 (400M), 158.00 (3.7BLN)
  • EUR/JPY: 171.50 (850M).
     
  • CFTC Data As Of 9/7/24

  • Japanese yen net short position is -182,033 contracts
  • Euro net long position is 3,623 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 84,690 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -46,088 contracts
  • Bitcoin net short position is -118 contracts
  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 47,949 contracts to 341,624
  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 24,304 contracts to 977,432
     
  • Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5550

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 5475 opens 5450
  • Primary support 5400
  • Primary objective is 5700
  • EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.0750
  • GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.29

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 
  • Below 1.2670 opens 1.2450
  • Primary support is 1.2690
  • Primary objective 1.3137/60
  • USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 156

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Below 156 opens 153
  • Primary support 152
  • Primary objective is 164
  • XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2345

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish
  • Below 2400 opens 2330
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2598
  • BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 62000

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 
  • Above 67000 opens 70000
  • Primary support is 50000
  • Primary objective is 70000
  • More By This Author:FTSE Flatlining As Sticky Inflation Data Weighs On Rate Cut Hopes
    Daily Market Outlook – Wednesday, July 17
    FTSE Breaking Hat Trick Of Gains Ahead Of UK Inflation Data

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