Bear Of The Day: Crowdstrike


CrowdStrike (CRWD) is a premier cybersecurity firm focused on end-point threat detection and response.And before they became headline news this weekend, the Zacks Rank detected significant downward EPS estimates on June 8. On June 11, our Short List algorithm added CRWD shares and is currently posting a 30% gain (as of 7/22) after shorting at $380. Why is CrowdStrike Such a Big Deal?CrowdStrike’s co-founders George Kurtz and Dmitri Alperovitch were inspired by shortcomings in previous-generation security software technologies. In 2011, they focused on leveraging the network effects of crowdsourced data from their customer base applied to modern technologies, including AI, cloud computing, and responsive databases to adaptively detect threats and stop breaches.The company’s Falcon platform has expanded its market opportunity beyond core endpoint protection through offering advanced innovations using machine learning and deep learning for real-time surveillance and mitigation.CrowdStrike became a household name after being called on to remediate the Democratic National Committee breach in 2016. This week, it’s a household name for a completely different (and not great) reason as one of their “software upgrades” brought airline travel to its knees over the weekend. Fragile IT Systems?This what Nassim Taleb might call an “anti-fragile” wake up call for modern IT systems with built-in dependencies and extra complexity. In response to many posts on Twitter/X about the massive shutdown for Delta Air Lines, with people sleeping on the terminal floor in Atlanta for four days, I wrote this…My report last year “State of Threat: Cyber Crime 3.0” highlighted the state-sponsored sophistication of cyber crime and terrorism… and how hard the cybersecurity firms would have to work to keep up. Now they are so busy trying to stay ahead of the bad guys that systemic fragility gets built in.I have been a CRWD bull since $50 in 2019, and even as the valuation pushed some limits recently. Now I’ll be looking for a spot to buy it again soon, maybe at 10X sales. After the 30% drop, it’s now trading about 12.8X next year’s projected $5 billion topline.But those numbers could be in jeopardy if customers reposition to other vendors. The good news is that most big enterprises won’t just switch from a key embedded protection player like CrowdStrike. The bad news is that this will definitely hit earnings as the company makes remediations and invests more heavily to regain trust. State of ThreatIf you want a copy of my report from last October, where I explain the impact of “Cyber Crime 3.0”, just reach out to Ultimate@Zacks.com and tell ’em Cooker sent you.Here’s how I praised the company then as one of my top cyber picks when it was still trading under $200…CrowdStrike: This $44 billion leader in “edge” security for mobile, IoT, and government / military applications has been surging to new highs since their August 31 earnings report. As many employees and senior management continue to work from home and remotely, the threat vulnerabilities are multiplied outside of enterprise firewalls. CrowdStrike’s Zero Trust solution is intended to prevent breaches in real time on any identity, endpoint, or remote workload.This Zacks #2 Rank is more expensive given the recent stock move, but with 35% topline growth this year — and next year projected to tag $4 billion with another 28% advance — it’s going to remain on the top list for growth investors. It doesn’t hurt that profits are following with an 83% jump to EPS of $2.82. And these are the guys, led by founder George Kurtz, who have deep experience in Europe and Asia and are watching every move that Russia and China make.(end of October report excerpt) Bottom lineI just shared this so you can see how I approached the growth and valuation back then. It looks like we’ll be getting another chance at the stock at better bargain levels. So let’s wait for the EPS estimates (and price targets) to come down and look for a buying opportunity before or after their Q2 report in late Aug/early Sep.More By This Author:Bull Of The Day: Nvidia – Tuesday, July 23Bull Of The Day – DatadogBear Of The Day: Manitowoc

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