AgMaster Report – Tuesday, July 23


SEPT BEANS
Eventually, LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES! Sept Beans have plummeted $3.00 since December (1330-1030) – and now a hot spell is due into early August – when beans are made! As well, 3 flash sales of beans & meal have been recorded last Thur & Fri! Finally, fears of a Trump Trade Embargo have subsided with the sudden withdrawal of Joe Biden from the presidential race! Funds are holding a record short position – which would fuel substantial buying should any positive fundamentals emerge! The flash sales indicate significant export interest at the current 3 yr low levels – and it appears a large crop & yield are already dialed in!
SEPT CORN
Hot & dry is entering the corn/bean belt into early August – igniting a short-covering rally today – helped by beans 25 cent up! Also, Mexico bought 133,000 mt of US Corn this morning! Finally, Biden exiting the Presidential Race eases concerns about potential a trade war by increasing the Dems chances! Net fund shorts are a record 343,845 contracts – & they will exit on any fundamental improving! The nearly $2.00 break since last Summer has factored in a 15.1BB crop & an 182-183 yield! Also, remember, the acres are 3 million under last year – should the yields not be as buoyant as expected! The US is very competitive on the export front with our prices under South America
SEPT WHT
Quality issues with the EU & Russia – coupled with crop stress in the Canadian Prairies have supported Sept Wht on breaks! Robust exports of late & spillover support from corn/beans today have both helped underpin! Wht futures are $2.50 cheaper than last Summer – which is encouraging foreign trade! Last week, Egypt bought over 700,000 MT of Russian Wht – the biggest purchase in 2 years! Recent escalation in the Red Sea area has increased shipping risks for wht!
AUG CAT
A friendly Cattle-on-Field Report issued Friday at 2 pm reported placements at 93% (exp – 97) and this report plus elevated grilling season demand into the Labor Day W/E have rallied Aug Cat into the top of its recent trading range! Slaughter & beef production were under last year & helped underpin the mkt!                                                                                                                   
AUG HOGS
A stunning $8 upside reversal in Aug Hogs (84-92) has technically confirmed a low in the contract after a $25 plummet! Cash mkts have firmed seemingly validating the chart low & demand – helped by the glaring disparity between pork & beef in the grocery store – has consolidated the turn-around! And another 5 weeks of “grilling demand” is still ahead thru the Labor Day W/E!More By This Author:AgMaster Report – Tuesday, July 16
AgMaster Report – Tuesday, July 9
AgMaster Report – Thursday, July 4

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