Image Source: UnsplashKC Fed survey joined yesterday’s Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today’s plunge in durable goods orders) but of course, all eyes were sternly focused on Q2 GDP’s beat.That ‘good news’ sparked a hawkish shift lower in rate-cut expectations…Source: BloombergThe Nasdaq lagged..again.. with Small Caps ripping higher. The S&P ended red again with The Dow clinging to gains…Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech indexSource: BloombergThis is the biggest relative underperformance of the Nasdaq vs Russell 2000 since the peak of the dotcom boom…Source: BloombergSmall Caps were helped by a massive (almost 5%) short-squeeze today…Source: BloombergMag7 stocks ended lower but bounced back off the initial puke…Source: BloombergThe S&P 500 found support almost perfectly at its 50DMA (5433), bounced, and then fell back below it again…Nasdaq also bounced off its 100DMA yesterday and faded back towards it today…Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that they saw the first buy-skew in a few days with our floor tilting +3% net to buy. Volumes tracking +25% vs the trailing 20 days and ETFs capturing 30% of the overall tape.

Equity risk is back up at its highest since April, but bond volume remains muted… for now…

“It does seem that an unwinding has begun of popular trades that brought valuations to stupid levels,” Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive officer of Gavekal Research, wrote in a note to clients.

Mixed day for bonds with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1bps, 30Y -5bps) reversing some of the recent very aggressive steepening of the curve…Source: BloombergThe dollar chopped around like a penny stock today…Source: BloombergGold was hit again, finding support at $2350…Source: BloombergBitcoin slipped lower, finding support at around $64,000…Source: BloombergBut ETH dramatically lagged BTC, erasing most of the post-May ‘buy the ETF rumor’ gains…Source: BloombergOil prices bounced back to unchanged on the week…Source: BloombergFinally, there’s more room to run. SPX: over the last ~100 years, the median year has an SPX peak-to-trough drawdown of 13%. Believe it or not only been 4% which is a typical drawdown taking us to 4900…NDX: median drawdown is 16% or around another 9% from here based on the last 40 calendar years – would put you at the ~1700 level…But hey, we bounced today, so everything is awesome, right?More By This Author:US Durable Goods Orders Plunged In June As Non-Defense-Spending Crashed
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