The previous review began with this headline: “S&P500. Will we see a new vertex? The answer was given with the following conclusion: “It is expected that the S&P500 will make a new top with a target of 5600 . There are options for getting there . The reversal looks like an unlikely scenario , it can only be revised if something seriously changes in the movement of the dollar index and bonds.5600 really did, even went a little higher . Let’s consider the scenarios of further development.On July 16, the top was shown at the level of 5677.75 , and the decline began . Did you make divisions ((i)) — ((ii)) — ((iii)) in the downward momentum, or were they (a)-(b)-(c) in a correction followed by continued growth . After the collapse on Monday (05.08), growth began, the development of which will largely answer this question: if we make the final ((v)) (it is desirable that ((iv)) if it does not go above the top ((i)) ) , then an impulse will form downwards . This will most likely mean a reversal . After that, we will see a rebound of 2 , but this will already be a correction to the fall . In the opposite case, a zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) will remain, followed by updating the historical vertex.Minor adjustments were made to the long-term calculation (wave 4). According to the structure, everything is ready for a U-turn. 27.07 the end ((ii)) and start of traffic ((iii)) were recorded in the closed section .“Wave (v) turned out to be shortened , but there is nothing terrible . A correction to the specified levels is expected , most likely we will close the gap . Alternative — still in progress (iv ) , then there will be a final (v) and correction ((ii)).” Of the fundamental factors, first of all, it is worth highlighting the gradual return to the” normal state ” of the yield curve . For example, an important indicator is the 10-2-year ratio As you can see, each time such a scenario led to a recession . Also, the recent inversion was the longest in more than 40 years .The number of applications for corporate bankruptcy rose in the United States to the highest in 13 years. At the same time, the labor market gives serious signals. The recession indicator, developed by Claudia Sahm, signals the beginning of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more from the lowest of the three-month averages of the previous 12 months — this is what has happened now Conclusion: Now is an important moment in the S&P500 movement, updating the low of 05.08 will form a downward impulse and make the probability of a “global reversal” high .More By This Author:Bitcoin: Medium-Term Forecast
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