Natural Gas on the Nymex had a negative week before closing 4.2% lower than the previous one at $2.25 for the October contract. EIA reported on Thursday a rather bullish build for this time of year of 35 Bcf in working underground stocks. Total inventory is currently at 3,299 Bcf, 7.2% higher y/y, 12.6% above the 5-year average. First time in 8 months that has crossed below the 5-year maximum.After we identified a floor back in March, we wanted to buy the dip of this market. We have taken near-term ranges and the first leg of this next seasonal uptrend for a healthy 30%. We haven’t seen any break-out yet as the weight of the 1-dollar contracts back in winter had echoed in summer. We had warned about this in February. We only want to trade the near-term charts on any Daily MACD swing. We still anticipate a second attainment of the $3.25 level before winter, on the continuation of the uptrend. It might only be a spike, because of the shoulder season in the coming couple of months, therefore, any near-term trading must be timely executed. The Daily MACD is looking ready to cross bearish so we might need to take this next dip from an even lower entry level in the coming weeks.The Federal Reserve appears to want to start lowering the central rate. I believe that the interest rate will remain relatively high for another couple of years for different reasons. As I have said before, only two industries have driven global inflation over the past two years. Energy and shipping. The Central bank had to fill gaps in the government’s lack of control over these two industries. The United States appears to be managing to reduce inflation without major losses in the labor market. Of course the Dollar will be pressured first, giving the possibility to export producers to raise the prices of their products. But the rest of the major central banks will follow with their rate cuts and any advantage will soon be lost. U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index must be routinely monitored. Domestic consumption appears to be still strong. This is mainly due to lower energy prices. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.
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