Image Source: PixabayMy guess is bond yields are heading much lower between now and September 11.
30-Year US Treasury Long Bond chart courtesy of Stockcharts.Com, annotations by Mish30-Year Long Bond Technical PositionTechnically speaking, the long bond yield is right on support. Typically this is a spot where one would expect yields to bounce.However, there have been four bounces off this level since late last year. I expect support to crumble in the wake of deteriorating economic data.10-Year US Treasury Note Yield
10-Year US Treasury note chart courtesy of Stockcharts.Com, annotations by Mish10-year US Treasury Note Technical PositionThe technical pattens of the 10-year Treasury note is the same as the 30-year long bond. The only difference is yields and support levels are lower on the 10-year note.Fundamentally SpeakingFundamentally, support levels will break sooner or later and I expect sooner, as in tomorrow.A stronger reaction, and one I am more confident of, will happen with the next CPI release on September 11.I anticipate a 50-basis point (0.5 percentage point) move lower on both within the next month or so.Weakening Data EverywhereSeptember 2: In Honor of Labor Day, Let’s Review BLS Job RevisionsSeptember 3: Construction Spending Growth Slows in May, Stops in June, Negative in JulySeptember 5: Fed Beige Book Shows Flat or Declining Economy in 9 of 12 Fed DistrictsSeptember 5: Small Businesses Reducing Workers for the Last Four MonthsTomorrow the issues its monthly jobs reports.In fourteen of the last 20 months the revisions have been negative. And if the report is good, there is no particular reason to believe it.For discussion, please see A Breakdown, by Sector, of the Negative 818,000 BLS Job Revisions.Expect more job weakness then a very rate cut friendly CPI report next week.More By This Author:Small Businesses Reducing Workers For The Last Four Months
ISM Services Index Up Slightly But Employment Weakens To Nearly Flat
Fed Beige Book Shows Flat Or Declining Economy In 9 Of 12 Fed Districts
