Image Source: PixabayJuly data on job openings and labor market turnover (JOLTS) showed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings, which came in 5% lower than estimated with a 3% downward revision to June data. The JOLTS data has been very consistent for some time in terms of showing a slowdown in hiring. Hires were over 4.5% of the labor force at the peak in late 2021 but have been trending lower for almost three years now; the same goes for the quits rate. Both those metrics improved this month despite weaker openings, but the weaker trend is very clear. One final note that is arguably the most concerning: while layoffs are still low, gross job terminations were 1.68mm in July. That’s not unusually high compared to pre-COVID levels, but firings may be starting to pick up. If slow hiring is now being matched by outright firings, problems could mount.
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